Collier, Rosemary, Fellows, J. R. (Jane R.), Adams, S. R. (Steven R.), Semenov, Mikhail and Thomas, Brian. (2008) Vulnerability of horticultural crop production to extreme weather events. Aspects of Applied Biology, Vol.88 . pp. 3-14. ISSN 0265-1491

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Abstract

The potential impact of future extreme weather events on horticultural crops was evaluated. A review was carried out of the sensitivities of a representative set of crops to environmental challenges. It confirmed that a range of environmental factors are capable of causing a significant impact on production, either as yield or quality loss. The most important of these were un-seasonal temperature, water shortage or excess,and storms. Future scenarios were produced by the LARS-WG1, a stochastic weather generator linked with UKCIP02 projections of future climate. For the analyses, 150 years of synthetic weather data were generated for baseline, 2020HI and 2050HI scenarios at defined locations. The output from the weather generator was used in case studies, either to estimate the frequency of a defined set of circumstances known to have impact on cropping, or as inputs to models of crop scheduling or pest phenology or survival. The analyses indicated that episodes of summer drought severe enough to interrupt the continuity of supply of salads and other vegetables will increase while the frequency of autumns with sufficient rainfall to restrict potato lifting will decrease. They also indicated that the scheduling of winter cauliflowers for continuity of supply will require the deployment of varieties with different temperature sensitivities from those in use currently. In the pest insect studies, the number of batches of Agrotis segetum (cutworm) larvae surviving to third instar increased with time, as did the potential number of generations of Plutella xylostella (diamond-back moth) in the growing season, across a range of locations. The study demonstrated the utility of high resolution scenarios in predicting the likelihood of specific weather patterns and their potential effect on horticultural production. Several limitations of the current scenarios and biological models were also identified.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	S Agriculture > SB Plant culture Q Science > QC Physics
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Warwick HRI (2004-2010)
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Climatic changes -- Great Britain, Climatic changes -- Environmental aspects, Crops -- Effect of global warming on, Agricultural pests -- Control, Global warming -- Environmental aspects -- Great Britian
Journal or Publication Title:	Aspects of Applied Biology
Publisher:	Association of Applied Biologists
ISSN:	0265-1491
Date:	2008
Volume:	Vol.88
Page Range:	pp. 3-14
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
Funder:	Great Britain. Dept. for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA)
Grant number:	AC0301 (DEFRA)
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URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/717

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