The Library

Vulnerability of horticultural crop production to extreme weather events

Tools

Collier, Rosemary, Fellows, J. R. (Jane R.), Adams, S. R. (Steven R.), Semenov, Mikhail and Thomas, Brian. (2008) Vulnerability of horticultural crop production to extreme weather events. Aspects of Applied Biology, Vol.88 . pp. 3-14. ISSN 0265-1491

Preview

PDF
WRAP_Collier_Vulnerability.pdf - Requires a PDF viewer such as GSview, Xpdf or Adobe Acrobat Reader
Download (624Kb)

Official URL: http://www.aab.org.uk/contentok.php?id=352

Abstract

The potential impact of future extreme weather events on horticultural crops was evaluated. A review was carried out of the sensitivities of a representative set of crops
to environmental challenges. It confirmed that a range of environmental factors are capable of causing a significant impact on production, either as yield or quality loss.
The most important of these were un-seasonal temperature, water shortage or excess,and storms. Future scenarios were produced by the LARS-WG1, a stochastic weather generator linked with UKCIP02 projections of future climate. For the analyses, 150 years of synthetic weather data were generated for baseline, 2020HI and 2050HI scenarios at defined locations. The output from the weather generator was used in case studies, either to estimate the frequency of a defined set of circumstances known to have impact on cropping, or as inputs to models of crop scheduling or pest phenology or survival. The analyses indicated that episodes of summer drought severe enough to interrupt the continuity of supply of salads and other vegetables will increase while the frequency of autumns with sufficient rainfall to restrict potato lifting will decrease. They also indicated that the scheduling of winter cauliflowers for continuity of supply will require the deployment of varieties with different temperature sensitivities from those in use currently. In the pest insect studies, the number of batches of Agrotis segetum (cutworm) larvae surviving to third instar increased with time, as did the potential number of generations of Plutella xylostella (diamond-back moth) in the growing season, across a range of locations. The study demonstrated the utility of high resolution scenarios in predicting the likelihood of specific weather patterns and their potential effect on horticultural production. Several limitations of the current scenarios and biological models were also identified.

Item Type:

Journal Article

Subjects:

S Agriculture > SB Plant culture
Q Science > QC Physics

Divisions:

Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Warwick HRI (2004-2010)

Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):

Climatic changes -- Great Britain, Climatic changes -- Environmental aspects, Crops -- Effect of global warming on, Agricultural pests -- Control, Global warming -- Environmental aspects -- Great Britian

Journal or Publication Title:

Aspects of Applied Biology

Publisher:

Association of Applied Biologists

ISSN:

0265-1491

Official Date:

2008

Dates:

Date	Event
2008	Published

Volume:

Vol.88

Page Range:

pp. 3-14

Status:

Peer Reviewed

Access rights to Published version:

Open Access

Funder:

Great Britain. Dept. for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA)

Grant number:

AC0301 (DEFRA)

References:

Adams S. R, Valdés V. M. 2002. The effect of periods of high temperature and manipulating fruit load on the pattern of tomato yields. Journal of Horticultural Science & Biotechnology 77: 461–466.
Bowden J, Cochrane J, Emmett B J, Minall T E, Sherlock P L. 1983. A survey of cutworm attacks in England and Wales, and a descriptive population model for Agrotis segetum (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). Annals of Applied Biology 102:29–47.
Butts R A, McEwen F L. 1981. Seasonal populations of the diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae), in relation to day-degree accumulation. Canadian Entomologist 113: 127–131.
Chapman J W, Reynolds D R, Smith A D. Riley J R, Pedgley D E, Woiwod I P. 2002. Highaltitude migration of the diamondback moth Plutella xylostella to the U.K.: a study using radar, aerial netting, and ground trapping. Ecological Entomology 27:641–650.
Chapman J W, Reynolds D R, Mouritsen H, Hill J K, Riley J R, Sivell D, Smith A D, Woiwod I P. 2008. Wind selection and drift compensation optimize migratory pathways in a high-flying moth. Current Biology, 18:514–518.
Collier R H, Finch S, Phelps K, Thompson A R. 1990. Possible impact of global warming on cabbage root fly (Delia radicum) activity in the UK. Annals of Applied Biology 118:261–271.
Esbjerg P. 1988. Behaviour of 1st- and 2nd-instar cutworms (Agrotis segetum Schiff.) (Lep., Noctuidae): the influence of soil moisture. Journal of Applied Entomology 105:3:295–302.
Finch S, Collier R H. 1985. Laboratory studies on aestivation in the cabbage root fly (Delia radicum). Entomologia experimentalis et Applicata 38:137–143.
Gan Y, Angadi S V, Cutforth H, Potts D V A, McDonald C L. 2004. Canola and mustard response to short periods of temperature and water stress at different developmental stages. Canadian Journal of Plant Science 84:697–704.
Gilles T, Phelps K, Clarkson J P, Kennedy R. 2004. Development of MILIONCAST, an improved model for predicting downy mildew sporulation on onions. Plant Disease 88: 695–702.
Harcourt D G. 1954. The biology and ecology of the diamondback moth, Plutella maculipennis (Curtis), in eastern Ontario. Ph.D. Thesis, Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y. 107 pp.
Harrington R, Tatchell G M, Bale J S. 1991. Weather, life cycle strategy and spring populations of aphids. Acta Phytopathologica et Entomologica Hungarica 25:423–432.
Harrington R, Hullé M, Plantegenest M. 2007. Monitoring and forecasting. In Aphids as crop pests, pp. 551–536. Eds H F van Emden and R Harrington. Wallingford, UK: CAB International.
Harrison J R, Barlow C A. 1972. Population-growth of the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum (Homoptera: Aphididae) after exposure to extreme temperatures. Annals of the Entomological Society of America 65(5):1011–1015.
Hill J K, Gatehouse A G. 1992. Effects of temperature and photoperiod on development and prereproductive period of the silver Y moth Autographa gamma (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). Bulletin of Entomological Research 82:335–341.
Hong C X, Fitt B D L, Welham S J. 1996. Effects of wetness period and temperature on development of dark pod spot (Alternaria brassicae) on oilseed rape (Brassica napus). Plant Pathology 45(6):1077–1089.
Kennedy R. 2000. Brassicas: spot the savings. HDC News August 2000, pp. 18–19.
McDonald G K, Paulsen G M. 1977. High temperature effects on photosynthesis and water relations of grain legumes. Plant and Soil 196:47–58.
Phelps K, Collier R H, Reader R J, Finch S. 1993. Monte Carlo simulation method for forecasting the timing of pest insect attacks. Crop Protection 12:335–342.
Pielaat A, van den Bosch F, Fitt B D L, Jeger M J. 2002. Simulation of vertical spread of plant diseases in a crop canopy by stem extension and splash dispersal. Ecological Modelling 151(2–3):195–212.
Rondanini D, Savin D, Hall A J. 2003. Dynamics of fruit growth and oil quality of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) exposed to brief intervals of high temperature during grain filling. Field Crops Research 83:79–90.
Sato S, Peet M M, Thomas J F. 2002. Determining critical pre- and post- anthesis periods and physiological processes in Lycopersicon esculentum Mill. exposed to moderately elevated temperatures. Journal of Experimental Botany 53:1187–1195.
Semenov M A. 2007. Development of high-resolution UKCIP02-based climate change scenarios in the UK. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 144:127–138.
Sparks T H, Dennis R L H, Croxton P J, Cade M. 2007. Increased migration of Lepidoptera linked to climate change. European Journal of Entomology 104:139–143.
Wurr D C E, Fellows J R, Fuller M P. 2004. Simulated effects of climate change on the production pattern of winter cauliflower in the UK. Scientia Horticulturae 101:359–372.