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Building a better business case : the use of non-linear growth models for predicting the market for hybrid vehicles in the UK
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Muraleedharakurup, G., McGordon, Andrew, Poxon, J. and Jennings, P. A. (Paul A.) (2010) Building a better business case : the use of non-linear growth models for predicting the market for hybrid vehicles in the UK. In: International Conference on Ecologic Vehicles and Renewable Energies, Monaco, 25-28 Mar 2010. Published in: Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference and Exhibition on Ecological Vehicles and Renewable Energies
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Abstract
The high initial costs and uncertainty in future adoption makes it very challenging for a vehicle manufacturer to construct a sustainable business case for hybrid vehicles. In this paper the future adoption of hybrid vehicles in the UK is forecasted using technology growth models. A review of car ownership in the UK is conducted and the market potential for hybrid vehicles is evaluated. A Powertrain Energy Cost function is derived to calculate the economic cost benefit of a hybrid vehicle with respect to conventional vehicles. An economic cost model using the life cycle cost analysis is performed to compare the competitiveness of hybrid vehicles against conventional vehicles. The Gompertz growth model is selected to fit existing data and a forecast of future hybrid vehicle adoption in the UK up to 2030 is conducted. The results indicate a slow but steady increase in the market penetration of hybrid vehicles with sales reaching 7.5% of new car registrations by 2020 and eventually capturing 16% of the market share by 2030. The study concludes by analysing the significant factors affecting the growth of hybrid vehicles in UK such as oil price and diesel vehicle penetration.
Item Type: | Conference Item (Paper) | ||||
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Engineering > WMG (Formerly the Warwick Manufacturing Group) | ||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference and Exhibition on Ecological Vehicles and Renewable Energies | ||||
Official Date: | 2010 | ||||
Dates: |
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Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||
Conference Paper Type: | Paper | ||||
Title of Event: | International Conference on Ecologic Vehicles and Renewable Energies | ||||
Type of Event: | Conference | ||||
Location of Event: | Monaco | ||||
Date(s) of Event: | 25-28 Mar 2010 |
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