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Drugs and violence in Afghanistan : a panel VAR with unobserved common factor analysis
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Bove, Vincenzo and Elia, Leandro (2012) Drugs and violence in Afghanistan : a panel VAR with unobserved common factor analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 24 (6). pp. 535-554. doi:10.1080/10242694.2012.723157
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2012.723157
Abstract
This paper addresses the relationship between the level of violence and the opium market in Afghanistan’s provinces. We first provide an overview of the nature and extent of the Afghan drug trafficking. This is followed by a vector autoregressive analysis of the nexus opium-insurgency activities using monthly time-series data on opium prices and the number of security incidents for 15 Afghan provinces over the period 2004–2009. We use a multifactor error structure, the common correlated effect, to include unobservable common factors; Impulse Response functions to describe the time path of the dependent variables in response to shocks; and the mean group estimator to summarize our results across the provinces. Results suggest a conflict-induced reduction in opium prices, while the reverse opium-violence mechanism is mostly negligible. Moreover, unobservable common factors are the main drivers of opium prices and violence.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor | ||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Politics and International Studies | ||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Opium trade -- Afghanistan, Drug traffic | ||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Defence and Peace Economics | ||||||||
| Publisher: | Taylor & Francis Ltd | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 1024-2694 | ||||||||
| Official Date: | 19 November 2012 | ||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 24 | ||||||||
| Number: | 6 | ||||||||
| Number of Pages: | 20 | ||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 535-554 | ||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1080/10242694.2012.723157 | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||
| Funder: | AXA Group. Research Fund | ||||||||
| Adapted As: |
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