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The impact of American and British involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq on health spending, military spending and economic growth

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Bove, Vincenzo and Elia, Leandro (2014) The impact of American and British involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq on health spending, military spending and economic growth. The BE Journal of Macroeconomics, 14 (1). pp. 325-339. doi:10.1515/bejm-2013-0097 ISSN 2194-6116.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2013-0097

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Abstract

Had there been no involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq, how much lower would military and health spending have been in the US and the UK? And what is the total effect of war on real output variations as compared with its counterfactual? We use a synthetic control method and find that while the UK and the US have experienced similar relative increases in health spending, especially towards the end of the 10-year window, the effect on military spending is much more pronounced in the US. We find that the combined cumulative costs amount to more than 17% of the US GDP and more than 9% of the UK GDP. Moreover, there are no robust signs of a convergence between the true and counterfactual levels of military spending while health spending shows a level shift in the last 5 years in both countries. Finally, there is no evidence of changes in the national income following the sharp increase in defense spending.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Politics and International Studies
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Armed Forces -- Appropriations and expenditures, Afghan War, 2001-, Government spending policy
Journal or Publication Title: The BE Journal of Macroeconomics
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter
ISSN: 2194-6116
Official Date: March 2014
Dates:
DateEvent
March 2014Published
28 March 2014Accepted
Volume: 14
Number: 1
Number of Pages: 15
Page Range: pp. 325-339
DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2013-0097
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Restricted or Subscription Access
Date of first compliant deposit: 31 December 2015
Date of first compliant Open Access: 31 December 2015

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