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Forecasting military expenditure
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Bohmelt, Tobias and Bove, Vincenzo (2014) Forecasting military expenditure. Research & Politics, 1 (1). doi:10.1177/2053168014535909 ISSN 2053-1680.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2053168014535909
Abstract
To what extent do frequently cited determinants of military spending allow us to predict and forecast future levels of expenditure? The authors draw on the data and specifications of a recent model on military expenditure and assess the predictive power of its variables using in-sample predictions, out-of-sample forecasts and Bayesian model averaging. To this end, this paper provides guidelines for prediction exercises in general using these three techniques. More substantially, however, the findings emphasize that previous levels of military spending as well as a country’s institutional and economic characteristics particularly improve our ability to predict future levels of investment in the military. Variables pertaining to the international security environment also matter, but seem less important. In addition, the results highlight that the updated model, which drops weak predictors, is not only more parsimonious, but also slightly more accurate than the original specification.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
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Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor | ||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Politics and International Studies | ||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Armed Forces -- Appropriations and expenditures -- Econometric models, Bayesian statistical decision theory, National security -- Economic aspects | ||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Research & Politics | ||||
Publisher: | Sage Publications, Inc. | ||||
ISSN: | 2053-1680 | ||||
Official Date: | 2014 | ||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 1 | ||||
Number: | 1 | ||||
Number of Pages: | 8 | ||||
DOI: | 10.1177/2053168014535909 | ||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 28 July 2016 | ||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 28 July 2016 |
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