White, L. J., Waris, M., Cane, Patricia, Nokes, D. James and Medley, Graham. (2005) The transmission dynamics of groups A and B human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) in England & Wales and Finland: seasonality and cross-protection. Epidemiology and Infection, Vol.13 (No.2). pp. 279-289. ISSN 0950-2688

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Abstract

Human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) transmission dynamics are inherently cyclical, and the observed genetic diversity (between groups A and B) also appears to have a repeating pattern. A key unknown is the extent to which genetic variants interact immunologically, and thus impact on epidemiology. We developed a novel mathematical model for hRSV transmission including seasonal forcing of incidence and temporary intra- and inter-group partial immunity. Simultaneous model fits to data from two locations (England & Wales, UK, and Turku, Finland) successfully reproduced the contrasting infection dynamics and group A/B dominance patterns. Parameter estimates are consistent with direct estimates. Differences in the magnitude and seasonal variation in contact rate between the two populations alone could account for the variation in dynamics between these populations. The A/B group dominance patterns are explained by reductions in susceptibility to and infectiousness of secondary homologous and heterologous infections. The consequences of the observed dynamic complexity are discussed.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Biological Sciences ( -2010)
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Communicable diseases -- Transmission, Respiratory infections -- Finland, Respiratory infections -- Great Britain, Respiratory infections -- Genetic aspects, Respiratory infections -- Research
Journal or Publication Title:	Epidemiology and Infection
Publisher:	Cambridge University Press
ISSN:	0950-2688
Date:	April 2005
Volume:	Vol.13
Number:	No.2
Page Range:	pp. 279-289
Identification Number:	10.1017/S0950268804003450
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
Funder:	Wellcome Trust (London, England)
Grant number:	061584 (WT)
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URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/740

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