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The transmission dynamics of groups A and B human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) in England & Wales and Finland: seasonality and cross-protection

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White, L. J., Waris, M., Cane, Patricia, Nokes, D. James and Medley, Graham. (2005) The transmission dynamics of groups A and B human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) in England & Wales and Finland: seasonality and cross-protection. Epidemiology and Infection, Vol.13 (No.2). pp. 279-289. ISSN 0950-2688

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268804003450

Abstract

Human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) transmission dynamics are inherently cyclical, and the observed genetic diversity (between groups A and B) also appears to have a repeating pattern. A key unknown is the extent to which genetic variants interact immunologically, and thus impact on epidemiology. We developed a novel mathematical model for hRSV transmission including seasonal forcing of incidence and temporary intra- and inter-group partial immunity. Simultaneous model fits to data from two locations (England & Wales, UK, and Turku, Finland) successfully reproduced the contrasting infection dynamics and group A/B dominance patterns. Parameter estimates are consistent with direct estimates. Differences in the magnitude and seasonal variation in contact rate between the two populations alone could account for the variation in dynamics between these populations. The A/B group dominance patterns are explained by reductions in susceptibility to and infectiousness of secondary homologous and heterologous infections. The consequences of the observed dynamic complexity are discussed.

Item Type:

Journal Article

Subjects:

R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine

Divisions:

Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Biological Sciences ( -2010)

Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):

Communicable diseases -- Transmission, Respiratory infections -- Finland, Respiratory infections -- Great Britain, Respiratory infections -- Genetic aspects, Respiratory infections -- Research

Journal or Publication Title:

Epidemiology and Infection

Publisher:

Cambridge University Press

ISSN:

0950-2688

Official Date:

April 2005

Dates:

Date	Event
April 2005	Published

Volume:

Vol.13

Number:

No.2

Page Range:

pp. 279-289

Identification Number:

10.1017/S0950268804003450

Status:

Peer Reviewed

Access rights to Published version:

Open Access

Funder:

Wellcome Trust (London, England)

Grant number:

061584 (WT)

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