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Dread and latency impacts on a VSL for cancer risk reduction

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McDonald, Rebecca, Chilton, Susan, Jones-Lee, M. W. and Metcalf, Hugh (2016) Dread and latency impacts on a VSL for cancer risk reduction. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 52 (2). pp. 137-161. doi:10.1007/s11166-016-9235-x

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11166-016-9235-x

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Abstract

We propose a structural relationship between the value of preventing a statistical cancer fatality and the value of statistical life (VSL) for risks of an instantaneous road accident fatality. This relationship incorporates a context effect reflecting both the illness or ‘morbidity’ associated with cancer fatality and the ‘dread’ or horror associated with the prospect of eventual death from cancer, as well as a latency effect that captures the discounting likely to arise because the onset of the symptoms of cancer typically occurs after some delay. We use a Risk-Risk trade-off study to validate this model by directly estimating the influence of context and latency effects upon the relative size of the VSL for cancer and for road accidents, confirming that both effects are significant and estimating their size using regression analysis. We show that morbidity accounts for the majority of the context premium. We use the elicited coefficients to reconstruct VSL estimates for a range of cancers characterised by their latency and morbidity periods.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
R Medicine > RC Internal medicine > RC0254 Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology (including Cancer)
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Cancer -- Reporting, Traffic fatalities
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
Publisher: Springer New York LLC
ISSN: 0895-5646
Official Date: April 2016
Dates:
DateEvent
April 2016Published
20 June 2015Accepted
26 April 2016Available
Date of first compliant deposit: 9 June 2016
Volume: 52
Number: 2
Number of Pages: 28
Page Range: pp. 137-161
DOI: 10.1007/s11166-016-9235-x
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
Funder: Great Britain. Health and Safety Executive, Economic and Social Research Council (Great Britain) (ESRC), Leverhulme Trust (LT)
Grant number: ES/K002201/1 (ESRC), RP2012-V-022 (LT)

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