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Dread and latency impacts on a VSL for cancer risk reduction
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McDonald, Rebecca, Chilton, Susan, Jones-Lee, M. W. and Metcalf, Hugh. (2016) Dread and latency impacts on a VSL for cancer risk reduction. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 52 (2). pp. 137-161. ISSN 0895-5646
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11166-016-9235-x
Abstract
We propose a structural relationship between the value of preventing a statistical cancer fatality and the value of statistical life (VSL) for risks of an instantaneous road accident fatality. This relationship incorporates a context effect reflecting both the illness or ‘morbidity’ associated with cancer fatality and the ‘dread’ or horror associated with the prospect of eventual death from cancer, as well as a latency effect that captures the discounting likely to arise because the onset of the symptoms of cancer typically occurs after some delay. We use a Risk-Risk trade-off study to validate this model by directly estimating the influence of context and latency effects upon the relative size of the VSL for cancer and for road accidents, confirming that both effects are significant and estimating their size using regression analysis. We show that morbidity accounts for the majority of the context premium. We use the elicited coefficients to reconstruct VSL estimates for a range of cancers characterised by their latency and morbidity periods.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory R Medicine > RC Internal medicine > RC0254 Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology (including Cancer) |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School | ||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Cancer -- Reporting, Traffic fatalities | ||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of Risk and Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Publisher: | Springer New York LLC | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 0895-5646 | ||||||||
| Official Date: | April 2016 | ||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 52 | ||||||||
| Number: | 2 | ||||||||
| Number of Pages: | 28 | ||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 137-161 | ||||||||
| Identification Number: | 10.1007/s11166-016-9235-x | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access | ||||||||
| Funder: | Great Britain. Health and Safety Executive, Economic and Social Research Council (Great Britain) (ESRC), Leverhulme Trust (LT) | ||||||||
| Grant number: | ES/K002201/1 (ESRC), RP2012-V-022 (LT) | ||||||||
| URI: | http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/75798 |
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