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Predicting elections for multiple countries using Twitter and polls
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Tsakalidis, Adam, Papadopoulos, S., Cristea, Alexandra I. and Kompatsiaris, Yiannis (2015) Predicting elections for multiple countries using Twitter and polls. IEEE Intelligent Systems, 30 (2). pp. 10-17. doi:10.1109/MIS.2015.17
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WRAP_Cristea_0582421-cs-180116-elections.pdf - Accepted Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Download (629Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/MIS.2015.17
Abstract
The authors' work focuses on predicting the 2014 European Union elections in three different countries using Twitter and polls. Past works in this domain relying strictly on Twitter data have been proven ineffective. Others, using polls as their ground truth, have raised questions regarding the contribution of Twitter data for this task. Here, the authors treat this task as a multivariate time-series forecast, extracting Twitter- and poll-based features and training different predictive algorithms. They've achieved better results than several past works and the commercial baseline.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Computer Science | ||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Twitter (Firm) , European Union -- Elections, 2014 -- Germany, European Union -- Elections, 2014 -- Netherlands, European Union -- Elections, 2014 -- Greece, Election forecasting -- European Union , Exit polling (Elections) -- European Union , Public opinion polls -- European Union , Time-series analysis -- Elections, 2014 -- European Union | ||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | IEEE Intelligent Systems | ||||||||
| Publisher: | IEEE Computer Society | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 1541-1672 | ||||||||
| Official Date: | March 2015 | ||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Date of first compliant deposit: | 20 January 2016 | ||||||||
| Volume: | 30 | ||||||||
| Number: | 2 | ||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 10-17 | ||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1109/MIS.2015.17 | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||
| Funder: | Seventh Framework Programme (European Commission) (FP7) | ||||||||
| Grant number: | 287975 |
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