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Bayesian survival modelling of university outcomes
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Vallejos, Catalina A and Steel, Mark F. J. (2017) Bayesian survival modelling of university outcomes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) , 180 (2). pp. 613-631. doi:10.1111/rssa.12211 ISSN 0964-1998.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12211
Abstract
Dropouts and delayed graduations are critical issues in higher education systems world wide. A key task in this context is to identify risk factors associated with these events, providing potential targets for mitigating policies. For this, we employ a discrete time competing risks survival model, dealing simultaneously with university outcomes and its associated temporal component. We define survival times as the duration of the student's enrolment at university and possible outcomes as graduation or two types of dropout (voluntary and involuntary), exploring the information recorded at admission time (e.g. educational level of the parents) as potential predictors. Although similar strategies have been previously implemented, we extend the previous methods by handling covariate selection within a Bayesian variable selection framework, where model uncertainty is formally addressed through Bayesian model averaging. Our methodology is general; however, here we focus on undergraduate students enrolled in three selected degree programmes of the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile during the period 2000–2011. Our analysis reveals interesting insights, highlighting the main covariates that influence students’ risk of dropout and delayed graduation.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||
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Subjects: | L Education > LB Theory and practice of education > LB2300 Higher Education | ||||||||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics | ||||||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | College dropouts -- Mathematical models, Graduation (Statistics), Bayesian statistical decision theory , Competing risks, Universidad católica de Chile -- Research | ||||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) | ||||||||||
Publisher: | Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd. | ||||||||||
ISSN: | 0964-1998 | ||||||||||
Official Date: | February 2017 | ||||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 180 | ||||||||||
Number: | 2 | ||||||||||
Number of Pages: | 24 | ||||||||||
Page Range: | pp. 613-631 | ||||||||||
DOI: | 10.1111/rssa.12211 | ||||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 12 May 2016 | ||||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 14 July 2017 | ||||||||||
Funder: | University of Warwick, Universidad católica de Chile |
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