Vallejos, Catalina A and Steel, Mark F. J. (2017) Bayesian survival modelling of university outcomes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) , 180 (2). pp. 613-631. doi:10.1111/rssa.12211

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Abstract

Dropouts and delayed graduations are critical issues in higher education systems world wide. A key task in this context is to identify risk factors associated with these events, providing potential targets for mitigating policies. For this, we employ a discrete time competing risks survival model, dealing simultaneously with university outcomes and its associated temporal component. We define survival times as the duration of the student's enrolment at university and possible outcomes as graduation or two types of dropout (voluntary and involuntary), exploring the information recorded at admission time (e.g. educational level of the parents) as potential predictors. Although similar strategies have been previously implemented, we extend the previous methods by handling covariate selection within a Bayesian variable selection framework, where model uncertainty is formally addressed through Bayesian model averaging. Our methodology is general; however, here we focus on undergraduate students enrolled in three selected degree programmes of the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile during the period 2000–2011. Our analysis reveals interesting insights, highlighting the main covariates that influence students’ risk of dropout and delayed graduation.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	L Education > LB Theory and practice of education > LB2300 Higher Education
Divisions:	Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	College dropouts -- Mathematical models, Graduation (Statistics), Bayesian statistical decision theory , Competing risks, Universidad católica de Chile -- Research
Journal or Publication Title:	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)
Publisher:	Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
ISSN:	0964-1998
Official Date:	February 2017
Dates:	Date Event February 2017 Published 14 July 2016 Available 10 May 2016 Accepted February 2015 Submitted
Volume:	180
Number:	2
Number of Pages:	24
Page Range:	pp. 613-631
DOI:	10.1111/rssa.12211
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access
Funder:	University of Warwick, Universidad católica de Chile

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