Métras, Raphaëlle, Cavalerie, Lisa, Dommergues, Laure, Mérot, Philippe, Edmunds, W. John, Keeling, Matthew James, Cêtre-Sossah, Catherine and Cardinale, Eric (2016) The epidemiology of rift valley fever in Mayotte : insights and perspectives from 11 years of data. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 10 (6). pp. 1-12. e0004783. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004783

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Abstract

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic arboviral disease that is a threat to human health, animal health and production, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa. RVF virus dynamics have been poorly studied due to data scarcity. On the island of Mayotte in the Indian Ocean, off the Southeastern African coast, RVF has been present since at least 2004. Several retrospective and prospective serological surveys in livestock have been conducted over eleven years (2004–15). These data are collated and presented here. Temporal patterns of seroprevalence were plotted against time, as well as age-stratified seroprevalence. Results suggest that RVF was already present in 2004–07. An epidemic occurred between 2008 and 2010, with IgG and IgM peak annual prevalences of 36% in 2008–09 (N = 142, n = 51, 95% CI [17–55]) and 41% (N = 96, n = 39, 95% CI [25–56]), respectively. The virus seems to be circulating at a low level since 2011, causing few new infections. In 2015, about 95% of the livestock population was susceptible (IgG annual prevalence was 6% (N = 584, n = 29, 95% CI [3–10])). Monthly rainfall varied a lot (2–540mm), whilst average temperature remained high with little variation (about 25–30°C). This large dataset collected on an insular territory for more than 10 years, suggesting a past epidemic and a current inter-epidemic period, represents a unique opportunity to study RVF dynamics. Further data collection and modelling work may be used to test different scenarios of animal imports and rainfall pattern that could explain the observed epidemiological pattern and estimate the likelihood of a potential re-emergence.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR355 Virology
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Rift Valley fever -- Epidemiology
Journal or Publication Title:	PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Publisher:	Public Library of Science
ISSN:	1935-2727
Official Date:	22 June 2016
Dates:	Date Event 22 June 2016 Published 27 May 2016 Accepted 29 January 2016 Submitted
Date of first compliant deposit:	5 August 2016
Volume:	10
Number:	6
Number of Pages:	12
Page Range:	pp. 1-12
Article Number:	e0004783
DOI:	10.1371/journal.pntd.0004783
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
Funder:	Conseil Interministériel de l’Outre Mer, France. Agence nationale de la recherche (ANR), European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), Wellcome Trust (London, England)
Grant number:	101581 (WT)

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