The Library
Would you pay for transparently useless advice? A test of boundaries of beliefs in the folly of predictions
Tools
Tools
Tools
Powdthavee, Nattavudh and Riyanto, Yohanes E. (2015) Would you pay for transparently useless advice? A test of boundaries of beliefs in the folly of predictions. Review of Economics and Statistics, 97 (2). pp. 257-272. doi:10.1162/REST_a_00453 ISSN 0034-6535.
Research output not available from this repository.
Request-a-Copy directly from author or use local Library Get it For Me service.
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00453
Abstract
Standard economic models assume that the demand for expert
predictions arises only under the conditions in which individuals are
uncertain about the underlying process generating the data and there is a
strong belief that past performances predict future performances. We set
up the strongest possible test of these assumptions. In contrast to the theoretical
suggestions made in the literature, people are willing to pay for
predictions of truly random outcomes after witnessing only a short streak
of accurate predictions live in the lab. We discuss potential explanations
and implications of such irrational learning in the contexts of economics
and finance.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Review of Economics and Statistics | ||||
| Publisher: | MIT Press | ||||
| ISSN: | 0034-6535 | ||||
| Official Date: | 2015 | ||||
| Dates: |
|
||||
| Volume: | 97 | ||||
| Number: | 2 | ||||
| Page Range: | pp. 257-272 | ||||
| DOI: | 10.1162/REST_a_00453 | ||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access |
Request changes or add full text files to a record
Repository staff actions (login required)
 |
View Item |
