Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research
UNSPECIFIED (2003) Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research. ECONOMIC MODELLING, 20 (2). pp. 301-329. ISSN 0264-9993Full text not available from this repository.
This paper describes some recent advances and contributions to our understanding of economic forecasting. The framework we develop helps explain the findings of forecasting competitions and the prevalence of forecast failure. It constitutes a general theoretical background against which recent results can be judged. We compare this framework to a previous formulation, which was silent on the very issues of most concern to the forecaster. We describe a number of aspects which it illuminates, and draw out the implications for model selection. Finally, we discuss the areas where research remains needed to clarify empirical findings which lack theoretical explanations. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V All rights reserved.
|Item Type:||Journal Item|
|Subjects:||H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions|
|Journal or Publication Title:||ECONOMIC MODELLING|
|Publisher:||ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV|
|Official Date:||March 2003|
|Number of Pages:||29|
|Page Range:||pp. 301-329|
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