Bove, Vincenzo, Elia, Leandro and Smith, Ron P. (2017) On the heterogenous consequences of civil war. Oxford Economic Papers, 69 (3). pp. 550-568.

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Abstract

We show how the occurrence of a civil war has heterogeneous effects on the level of GDP, using case-study, synthetic control and large-N panel-data approaches. We first discuss the relation between these methods and then provide lower and upper estimates of the economic effect of civil war. Although, on average, the incidence of internal conflicts has a negative effect on the GDP level, it is very often insignificant. More importantly, however, both methods display a wide variety of individual effects, and in a large number of countries civil war has either no effect or a positive and significant impact on the prospect for economic growth.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor J Political Science > JC Political theory
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Politics and International Studies
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Civil war -- Economic aspects, Economic development -- Africa -- Case studies, Economic development -- Asia -- Case studies
Journal or Publication Title:	Oxford Economic Papers
Publisher:	Oxford University Press
ISSN:	0030-7653
Official Date:	1 July 2017
Dates:	Date Event 1 July 2017 Published 7 October 2016 Available 17 August 2016 Accepted
Date of first compliant deposit:	10 October 2016
Volume:	69
Number:	3
Page Range:	pp. 550-568
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access
Funder:	European Commission (EC)

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