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Sanborn, Adam N. and Chater, Nick (2016) Bayesian brains without probabilities. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 20 (12). pp. 883-893. doi:10.1016/j.tics.2016.10.003 ISSN 1364-6613.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2016.10.003
Abstract
Bayesian explanations have swept through cognitive science over the past two decades, from intuitive physics and causal learning, to perception, motor control and language. Yet people flounder with even the simplest probability questions. What explains this apparent paradox? How can a supposedly Bayesian brain reason so poorly with probabilities? In this paper, we propose a direct and perhaps unexpected answer: that Bayesian brains need not represent or calculate probabilities at all and are, indeed, poorly adapted to do so. Instead, the brain is a Bayesian sampler. Only with infinite samples does a Bayesian sampler conform to the laws of probability; with finite samples it systematically generates classic probabilistic reasoning errors, including the unpacking effect, base-rate neglect, and the conjunction fallacy.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subjects: | B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology | ||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School > Behavioural Science Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Bayesian statistical decision theory, Cognitive science | ||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Trends in Cognitive Sciences | ||||||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier Science | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 1364-6613 | ||||||||
| Official Date: | December 2016 | ||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 20 | ||||||||
| Number: | 12 | ||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 883-893 | ||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.tics.2016.10.003 | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 27 October 2016 | ||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 28 October 2016 | ||||||||
| Funder: | Economic and Social Research Council (Great Britain) (ESRC), European Research Council (ERC), Leverhulme Trust (LT), Research Councils UK (RCUK) | ||||||||
| Grant number: | ES/K004948/1, ES/K002201/1 (ESRC), 295917-RATIONALITY (ERC), RP2012-V-022 (Leverhulme Trust), EP/K039830/1 (RCUK) |
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