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Rapid mortality transition of Pacific Islands in the 19th century
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Penman, Bridget S., Gupta, S. and Shanks, G. D. (2017) Rapid mortality transition of Pacific Islands in the 19th century. Epidemiology and Infection, 145 (1). pp. 1-11. doi:10.1017/S0950268816001989
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268816001989
Abstract
The depopulation of Pacific islands during the 16th to 19th centuries is a striking example of historical mass mortality due to infectious disease. Pacific Island populations have not been subject to such cataclysmic infectious disease mortality since. Here we explore the processes which could have given rise to this shift in infectious disease mortality patterns. We show, using mathematical models, that the population dynamics exhibited by Pacific Island populations are unlikely to be the result of Darwinian evolution. We propose that extreme mortality during first-contact epidemics is a function of epidemiological isolation, not a lack of previous selection. If, as pathogens become established in populations, extreme mortality is rapidly suppressed by herd immunity, Pacific Island population mortality patterns can be explained with no need to invoke genetic change. We discuss the mechanisms by which this could occur, including (i) a link between the proportion of the population transmitting infectious agents and case-fatality rates, and (ii) the course of infection with pathogens such as measles and smallpox being more severe in adults than in children. Overall, we consider the present-day risk of mass mortality from newly emerging infectious diseases is unlikely to be greater on Pacific islands than in other geographical areas.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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| Subjects: | D History General and Old World > DU Oceania (South Seas) H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine R Medicine > RC Internal medicine |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) | ||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Communicable diseases--Islands of the Pacific, Epidemics--Islands of the Pacific, Islands of the Pacific--Population, Mortality--Islands of the Pacific | ||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Epidemiology and Infection | ||||||||
| Publisher: | Cambridge University Press | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 0950-2688 | ||||||||
| Official Date: | January 2017 | ||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Date of first compliant deposit: | 14 November 2016 | ||||||||
| Volume: | 145 | ||||||||
| Number: | 1 | ||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 1-11 | ||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1017/S0950268816001989 | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||
| Funder: | Wellcome Trust (London, England), Merton College, Royal Society (Great Britain). Wolfson Research Merit Award (RSWRMA), European Research Council (ERC) | ||||||||
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| Open Access Version: |
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