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Estimation of the basic reproduction number of measles during an outbreak in a partially vaccinated population

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Mossong, Joël and Muller, C. P. . (2000) Estimation of the basic reproduction number of measles during an outbreak in a partially vaccinated population. Epidemiology and Infection, Vol.124 (No.2). pp. 273-278. ISSN 0950-2688

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268899003672

Abstract

From March to July 1996 a measles outbreak occurred in northern Luxembourg with 110 reported cases centered around two primary schools (85 cases) and the surrounding community (25 cases). Eighty four suspected cases were confirmed serologically. Vaccine coverage was estimated from questionnaire-based surveys at the two primary schools to be 70 and 76%, respectively. Vaccine efficacy during the outbreak was estimated to be 94.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 90·4–97·0]. Using the information from the school surveys, we obtained estimates of the basic reproduction number of measles of 7·7 (95% CI 4·4–11·0) and 6·2 (95% CI 3·5–8·9), respectively. Assuming a 95% vaccine efficacy, these estimates correspond to minimal vaccine coverages of 91·6% (95% CI 81·4–95·7) and 88·3% (95% CI 75·5–93·4) which would have been necessary to minimize the chances of a major outbreak occurring. We can confirm that major outbreaks in similar school settings can only be prevented if vaccination coverage exceeds 90%.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Biological Sciences ( -2010)
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Measles -- Epidemiology -- Luxembourg, Measles -- Vaccination -- Luxembourg, Virus diseases -- Transmission, Virus diseases -- Immunological aspects
Journal or Publication Title:	Epidemiology and Infection
Publisher:	Cambridge University Press
ISSN:	0950-2688
Date:	2000
Volume:	Vol.124
Number:	No.2
Page Range:	pp. 273-278
Identification Number:	10.1017/S0950268899003672
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access
Funder:	Luxembourg. Ministère de l'Education Nationale et de la Formation Professionnelle
Grant number:	BFR 96/027 (MENFP)
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URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/847