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Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support emergency disease management
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Webb, Colleen, Ferrari, Matthew, Lindstrom, Tom, Carpenter, Tim, Durr, Salome, Garner, Graeme, Jewell, Chris, Stevenson, Mark, Ward, Michael, Werkman, Marleen, Backer, Jantien and Tildesley, Michael J. (2017) Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support emergency disease management. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 138 . pp. 124-133. ISSN 0167-5877.
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WRAP_0380721-lf-040117-ensemble_modelling.pdf - Accepted Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives 4.0. Download (1320Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.01.003
Abstract
Epidemiological models in animal health are commonly used as decision-support tools to understand the impact of various control actions on infection spread in susceptible populations. Different models contain different assumptions and parameterizations, and policy decisions might be improved by considering outputs from multiple models. However, a transparent decision-support framework to integrate outputs from multiple models is nascent in epidemiology. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making integrate the outputs of multiple models, compare policy actions and support policy decision-making. We briefly review the epidemiological application of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making and illustrate the potential of these methods using foot and mouth disease (FMD) models. In case study one, we apply structured decision-making to compare five possible control actions across three FMD models and show which control actions and outbreak costs are robustly supported and which are impacted by model uncertainty. In case study two, we develop a methodology for weighting the outputs of different models and show how different weighting schemes may impact the choice of control action. Using these case studies, we broadly illustrate the potential of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making in epidemiology to provide better information for decision-making and outline necessary development of these methods for their further application.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||
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Subjects: | S Agriculture > SF Animal culture | ||||||||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics |
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Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Veterinary epidemiology -- Mathematical models, Foot-and-mouth disease | ||||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Preventive Veterinary Medicine | ||||||||||
Publisher: | Elsevier | ||||||||||
ISSN: | 0167-5877 | ||||||||||
Official Date: | 1 March 2017 | ||||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 138 | ||||||||||
Page Range: | pp. 124-133 | ||||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 5 January 2017 | ||||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 1 March 2018 | ||||||||||
Funder: | Fogarty International Center. Research and Policy in Infectious Disease Dynamics Programme (RAPIDD), National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH), National Science Foundation (U.S.) (NSF) | ||||||||||
Grant number: | #HSHQDC-09-X-00135 (RAPIDD) (NIH), 1R01 GM105247-01 (NSF) (NIH) |
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