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Evidence for history-dependence of influenza pandemic emergence
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Hill, Edward M., Tildesley, Michael J. and House, Thomas A. (2017) Evidence for history-dependence of influenza pandemic emergence. Scientific Reports, 7 . 43623. doi:10.1038/srep43623 ISSN 2045-2322.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep43623
Abstract
Influenza A viruses have caused a number of global pandemics, with considerable mortality in humans. Here, we analyse the time periods between influenza pandemics since 1700 under different assumptions to determine whether the emergence of new pandemic strains is a memoryless or history-dependent process. Bayesian model selection between exponential and gamma distributions for these time periods gives support to the hypothesis of history-dependence under eight out of nine sets of modelling assumptions. Using the fitted parameters to make predictions shows a high level of variability in the modelled number of pandemics from 2010–2110. The approach we take here relies on limited data, so is uncertain, but it provides cheap, safe and direct evidence relating to pandemic emergence, a field where indirect measurements are often made at great risk and cost.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Research Centres > Centre for Complexity Science Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Research Centres > Warwick Systems Biology Centre |
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Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Epidemics -- Mathematical models, Influenza A virus -- Mathematical models, Bayesian statistical decision theory | ||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Scientific Reports | ||||||||
Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group | ||||||||
ISSN: | 2045-2322 | ||||||||
Official Date: | 2 March 2017 | ||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 7 | ||||||||
Article Number: | 43623 | ||||||||
DOI: | 10.1038/srep43623 | ||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 6 March 2017 | ||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 6 March 2017 | ||||||||
Funder: | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), National Institutes of Health. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (U.S.) (NIH NIAID) | ||||||||
Grant number: | EP/I01358X/1, EP/N033701/1 (EPSRC), 1R01AI101028–01A1 (NIH NIAID) | ||||||||
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