The Library
On the analysis of livestock networks and the modelling of foot-and-mouth disease
Tools
Dawson, Peter Michael (2016) On the analysis of livestock networks and the modelling of foot-and-mouth disease. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.
|
PDF
WRAP_Theses_Dawson_2016.pdf - Submitted Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Download (14Mb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://webcat.warwick.ac.uk/record=b3062082~S15
Abstract
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious disease affecting cloven-hoofed ruminants. FMD is endemic across Asia, Africa and South America and, as demonstrated by the 2001 outbreak in the UK, can cause devastating epidemics in FMD free countries.
A comprehensive dataset comprising the births, deaths and farm-to-farm movements of almost fifty million cattle was made available to us by the Turkish authorities. In chapter 2 we discuss the processing, cleaning and analysis of this dataset. Cattle movement networks were built using farms as nodes and the farm-to-farm movements as edges before performing a network analysis.
The richness and completeness of the Turkish data set is not generally available to modellers. In chapter 3 we implement various sampling strategies to determine the quantity of network data required to give accurate epidemiological predictions, using the British cattle trade network as a case study.
In chapter 4 we introduce community detection as a method for analysing the cattle movement networks of both the UK and Turkey. This analysis goes beyond the calculation of the farm level statistics calculated in chapter 2 and seeks to find higher order structures in these networks.
Chapter 5 develops a within farm model of FMD by drawing on outbreak data from two farms of different sizes in Turkey. This model is parametrised by running a Bayesian inference scheme on the smaller of the two farms. Simulations were then performed on both farms using the inferred posterior parameter distributions.
Item Type: | Thesis (PhD) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Subjects: | S Agriculture > SF Animal culture | ||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Foot-and-mouth disease -- Transmission -- Mathematical models -- Turkey, Foot-and-mouth disease -- Transmission -- Mathematical models -- Great Britain | ||||
Official Date: | November 2016 | ||||
Dates: |
|
||||
Institution: | University of Warwick | ||||
Theses Department: | Centre for Complexity Science | ||||
Thesis Type: | PhD | ||||
Publication Status: | Unpublished | ||||
Supervisor(s)/Advisor: | Tildesley, Michael J. : Keeling, Matthew James‏ | ||||
Sponsors: | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, sponsoring body. | ||||
Format of File: | |||||
Extent: | 237 leaves : illustrations, charts, maps. | ||||
Language: | eng |
Request changes or add full text files to a record
Repository staff actions (login required)
View Item |
Downloads
Downloads per month over past year