Kunc, Martin and O'Brien, Frances A. (2017) Exploring the development of a methodology for scenario use : combining scenario and resource mapping approaches. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 124 . pp. 150-159. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2017.03.018 ISSN 0040-1625.

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Abstract

Scenarios are tools that help managers to identify critical uncertainties and describe possible futures; they typically focus on an organisation's external environment. Scenarios are often used by organisations to explore how their external environment may develop in the future and to consider its impact on their strategy. However, in order to develop strategy, an organisation needs also to consider the internal environment, in terms of its resources and capabilities, such as that presented within the Resource-Based View of the firm (RBV). This paper proposes a novel methodology for enhancing the scenario method through its serial integration with a method from the RBV field, namely that of resource mapping. The methodology provides the ability to support the "rehearsal" of a firm's strategic performance over time by exploring how the firm's resources and capabilities interact with the competitive environment and with the various scenarios. We illustrate our proposed method with an example of its use in a teaching setting by a group of postgraduate students along with a short description of its application within a company. We reflect on the design of the method and the early experiences of using it. The main contribution of the proposed method is that it provides an integrated approach linking scenarios with strategy development and evaluation. The paper ends with suggestions for further research.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School > Operational Research & Management Sciences Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Strategic planning -- Simulation methods, Decision making., Management -- Simulation methods.
Journal or Publication Title:	Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Publisher:	Elsevier Science BV
ISSN:	0040-1625
Official Date:	November 2017
Dates:	Date Event November 2017 Published 4 April 2017 Available 11 March 2017 Accepted 16 April 2016 Submitted
Volume:	124
Page Range:	pp. 150-159
DOI:	10.1016/j.techfore.2017.03.018
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access
Date of first compliant deposit:	19 April 2017
Date of first compliant Open Access:	4 October 2018

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