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Efficient use of sentinel sites : detection of invasive honeybee pests and diseases in the UK
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Keeling, Matthew James, Datta, Samik, Franklin, Daniel, Flatman, Ivor, Wattam, Andy, Brown, Mike and Budge, Giles E. (2017) Efficient use of sentinel sites : detection of invasive honeybee pests and diseases in the UK. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 14 (129). 20160908. doi:10.1098/rsif.2016.0908 ISSN 1742-5689.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2016.0908
Abstract
Sentinel sites, where problems can be identified early or investigated in detail, form an important part of planning for exotic disease outbreaks in humans, livestock and plants. Key questions are: how many sentinels are required, where should they be positioned and how effective are they at rapidly identifying new invasions? The sentinel apiary system for invasive honeybee pests and diseases illustrates the costs and benefits of such approaches. Here, we address these issues with two mathematical modelling approaches. The first approach is generic and uses probabilistic arguments to calculate the average number of affected sites when an outbreak is first detected, providing rapid and general insights that we have applied to a range of infectious diseases. The second approach uses a computationally intensive, stochastic, spatial model to simulate multiple outbreaks and to determine appropriate sentinel locations for UK apiaries. Both models quantify the anticipated increase in success of sentinel sites as their number increases and as non-sentinel sites become worse at detection; however, unexpectedly sentinels perform relatively better for faster growing outbreaks. Additionally, the spatial model allows us to quantify the substantial role that carefully positioned sentinels can play in the rapid detection of exotic invasions.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Subjects: | Q Science > QH Natural history Q Science > QL Zoology Q Science > QR Microbiology S Agriculture > SB Plant culture |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics |
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Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Computational biology, Biomathematics, Biogeography, Biological invasions--Prevention, Pests -- Control , Pathogenic microorganisms, Tropilaelaps , Small hive beetle , Honeybee -- Parasites, Honeybee -- Parasites -- Prevention | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of The Royal Society Interface | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Publisher: | The Royal Society Publishing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
ISSN: | 1742-5689 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Official Date: | 26 April 2017 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 14 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Number: | 129 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Article Number: | 20160908 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
DOI: | 10.1098/rsif.2016.0908 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 7 June 2017 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 8 June 2017 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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