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The high-yield spread as a predictor of real economic activity : evidence of a financial accelerator for the United States
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Mody, Ashoka and Taylor, Mark P. (2003) The high-yield spread as a predictor of real economic activity : evidence of a financial accelerator for the United States. IMF Staff Papers, 50 (3). pp. 373-402.
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Official URL: https://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/staffp/2003/0...
Abstract
Previous studies find that the interest rate term spread predicts real U.S. economic activity. We show that this relationship breaks down for the 1990s and suggest that its earlier success was due to high and volatile inflation. We find, however, that the high-yield spread (HYS) between "junk bond" and government bond yields predicts real activity during the 1990s-especially high levels. of the HYS. We also find that the HYS works through both the demand and the supply side of the economy. We interpret our findings as supportive of a financial accelerator mechanism.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HG Finance H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | IMF Staff Papers | ||||
| Publisher: | International Monetary Fund | ||||
| ISSN: | 1020-7635 | ||||
| Official Date: | 2003 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 50 | ||||
| Number: | 3 | ||||
| Number of Pages: | 30 | ||||
| Page Range: | pp. 373-402 | ||||
| Status: | Not Peer Reviewed | ||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access |
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