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Predicting the spread of the Asian hornet (Vespa velutina) following its incursion into Great Britain

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Keeling, Matthew James, Franklin, Daniel, Datta, Samik, Brown, Michael A. and Budge, Giles E. (2017) Predicting the spread of the Asian hornet (Vespa velutina) following its incursion into Great Britain. Scientific Reports, 7 . 6240 . doi:10.1038/s41598-017-06212-0

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Official URL: http://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06212-0

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Abstract

The yellow-legged or Asian hornet (Vespa velutina) is native to South-East Asia, and is a voracious predator of pollinating insects including honey bees. Since its accidental introduction into South-Western France in 2004, V. velutina has spread to much of western Europe. The presence of V. velutina in Great Britain was first confirmed in September 2016. The likely dynamics following an initial incursion are uncertain, especially the risk of continued spread, and the likely success of control measures. Here we extrapolate from the situation in France to quantify the potential invasion of V. velutina in Great Britain. We find that, without control, V. velutina could colonise the British mainland rapidly, depending upon how the Asian hornet responds to the colder climate in Britain compared to France. The announcement that a second hornet had been discovered in Somerset, increases the chance that the invasion first occurred before 2016. We therefore consider the likely site of first invasion and the probabilistic position of additional founding nests in late 2016 and early 2017. Given the potential dispersion of V. velutina, we conclude that vigilance is required over a large area to prevent the establishment of this threat to the pollinator population.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: Q Science > QL Zoology
S Agriculture > SB Plant culture
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Hornets , Vespidae, Pests--Control--Great Britain
Journal or Publication Title: Scientific Reports
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
ISSN: 2045-2322
Official Date: 24 July 2017
Dates:
DateEvent
24 July 2017Published
28 June 2017Accepted
Volume: 7
Article Number: 6240
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-06212-0
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
BB/I000801Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000268
SEPF14-30Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairshttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000277
UNSPECIFIEDNatural Environment Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000270
UNSPECIFIEDWellcome Trusthttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100004440
BB/I000615/1Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000268
UNSPECIFIEDScottish Governmenthttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100012095
UNSPECIFIEDWales. Welsh Assembly Governmenthttps://viaf.org/viaf/129190509
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