The Library
Evaluating interval forecasts of high-frequency financial data
Tools
UNSPECIFIED (2003) Evaluating interval forecasts of high-frequency financial data. JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, 18 (4). pp. 445-456. doi:10.1002/jae.703 ISSN 0883-7252.
Research output not available from this repository.
Request-a-Copy directly from author or use local Library Get it For Me service.
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jae.703
Abstract
A number of methods of evaluating the validity of interval forecasts of financial data are analysed, and illustrated using intraday FTSE100 index futures returns. Some existing interval forecast evaluation techniques, such as the Markov chain approach of Christoffersen (1998), are shown to be inappropriate in the presence of periodic heteroscedasticity. Instead, we consider a regression-based test, and a modified version of Christoffersen's Markov chain test for independence, and analyse their properties when the financial time series exhibit periodic volatility. These approaches lead to different conclusions when interval forecasts of FTSE100 index futures returns generated by various GARCH(1,1) and periodic GARCH(1,1) models are evaluated. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences |
||||
Journal or Publication Title: | JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS | ||||
Publisher: | JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD | ||||
ISSN: | 0883-7252 | ||||
Official Date: | July 2003 | ||||
Dates: |
|
||||
Volume: | 18 | ||||
Number: | 4 | ||||
Number of Pages: | 12 | ||||
Page Range: | pp. 445-456 | ||||
DOI: | 10.1002/jae.703 | ||||
Publication Status: | Published |
Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge
Request changes or add full text files to a record
Repository staff actions (login required)
View Item |