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Social networks and citizen election forecasting : the more friends the better
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Leiter, Debra, Murr, Andreas , Rascon, Ericka and Stegmaier, Mary (2018) Social networks and citizen election forecasting : the more friends the better. International Journal of Forecasting, 34 (2). pp. 235-248. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.11.006 ISSN 0169-2070.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.11.006
Abstract
Most citizens correctly forecast which party will win in most elections, usually with greater accuracy than voter intention polls. How do they do it? We argue that social networks are a big part of the answer: much of what we know as citizens comes from our communication with others. Previous research has considered only indirect characteristics of social networks to analyze why citizens are good forecasters. Using a unique German survey, we consider direct measures of social networks to explore their role in election forecasting. We find that three network characteristics – size, political composition, and frequency of political discussion – are among the most important variables when predicting the accuracy of citizens’ election forecasts.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subjects: | J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) | ||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Politics and International Studies | ||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Election forecasting -- Germany, Voting research, Social networks | ||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | International Journal of Forecasting | ||||||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 0169-2070 | ||||||||
| Official Date: | June 2018 | ||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 34 | ||||||||
| Number: | 2 | ||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 235-248 | ||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.11.006 | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 21 November 2017 | ||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 2 February 2020 |
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