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Development of a prognostic model for predicting depression severity in adult primary patients with depressive symptoms using the diamond longitudinal study
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Chondros, Patty, Davidson, Sandra, Wolfe, Rory, Gilchrist, Gail, Dowrick, Christopher, Griffiths, Frances, Hegarty, Kelsey, Herrman, Helen and Gunn, Jane (2018) Development of a prognostic model for predicting depression severity in adult primary patients with depressive symptoms using the diamond longitudinal study. Journal of Affective Disorders, 227 . pp. 854-860. doi:10.1016/j.jad.2017.11.042 ISSN 0165-0327.
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WRAP-development-prognostic-predicting-depression-severity-Griffiths-2017.pdf - Accepted Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives 4.0. Download (819Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jad.2017.11.042
Abstract
Background
Depression trajectories among primary care patients are highly variable, making it difficult to identify patients that require intensive treatments or those that are likely to spontaneously remit. Currently, there are no easily implementable tools clinicians can use to stratify patients with depressive symptoms into different treatments according to their likely depression trajectory. We aimed to develop a prognostic tool to predict future depression severity among primary care patients with current depressive symptoms at three months.
Methods
Patient-reported data from the diamond study, a prospective cohort of 593 primary care patients with depressive symptoms attending 30 Australian general practices. Participants responded affirmatively to at least one of the first two PHQ-9 items. Twenty predictors were pre-selected by expert consensus based on reliability, ease of administration, likely patient acceptability, and international applicability. Multivariable mixed-effects linear regression was used to build the model.
Results
The prognostic model included eight baseline predictors: depressive symptoms, anxiety, history of depression, self-rated health, chronic physical illness, living alone, and perceived ability to manage on available income. Discrimination (c-statistic =0.74; 95% CI: 0.70–0.78) and calibration (agreement between predicted and observed symptom scores) were acceptable and comparable to other prognostic models in primary care.
Limitations
More complex model was not feasible because of modest sample size. Validation studies needed to confirm model performance in new primary care attendees.
Conclusion
A brief, easily administered algorithm predicting the severity of depressive symptoms has potential to assist clinicians to tailor treatment for adult primary care patients with current depressive symptoms.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | R Medicine > RC Internal medicine | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School > Health Sciences > Social Science & Systems in Health (SSSH) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Depression, Mental -- Prognosis -- Australia, Primary care (Medicine) -- Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of Affective Disorders | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier Science BV | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 0165-0327 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Official Date: | February 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 227 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 854-860 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jad.2017.11.042 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 28 November 2017 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 28 November 2017 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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