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NARX time series model for remaining useful life estimation of gas turbine engines
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Bektas, Oguz and Jones, Jeffrey Alun (2016) NARX time series model for remaining useful life estimation of gas turbine engines. In: Third European Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society 2016, Bilbao, Spain, 5-8 Jul 2016. Published in: Third European Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society 2016, 7
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WRAP-NARX-time-series-model-remaining-gas-engines-Bektas-2017.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (2129Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://www.phmsociety.org/node/1888/
Abstract
Prognostics is a promising approach used in condition based maintenance due to its ability to forecast complex systems' remaining useful life. In gas turbine maintenance applications, data-driven prognostic methods develop an understanding of system degradation by using regularly stored condition monitoring data, and then can automatically monitor and evaluate the future health index of the system. This paper presents such a technique for fault prognosis for turbofan engines. A prognostic model based on a nonlinear autoregressive neural network design with exogenous input is designed to determine how the future values of wear can be predicted. The
research applies the life prediction as a type of dynamic filtering, in which training time series are used to predict the future values of test series. The results demonstrate the relationship between the historical performance deterioration of an engine's prior operating period with the current life prediction.
Item Type: | Conference Item (Paper) | ||||
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Subjects: | T Technology > TL Motor vehicles. Aeronautics. Astronautics | ||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Engineering > WMG (Formerly the Warwick Manufacturing Group) | ||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Failure analysis (Engineering), Airplanes -- Turbofan engines | ||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Third European Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society 2016 | ||||
Publisher: | PHM Society | ||||
Official Date: | 23 June 2016 | ||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 7 | ||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 1 December 2017 | ||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 1 December 2017 | ||||
Conference Paper Type: | Paper | ||||
Title of Event: | Third European Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society 2016 | ||||
Type of Event: | Conference | ||||
Location of Event: | Bilbao, Spain | ||||
Date(s) of Event: | 5-8 Jul 2016 | ||||
Related URLs: | |||||
Open Access Version: |
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