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Predicting medium-term TFP growth in the United States : econometrics vs ‘techno-optimism’
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Crafts, N. F. R. and Mills, Terence C. (2017) Predicting medium-term TFP growth in the United States : econometrics vs ‘techno-optimism’. National Institute Economic Review, 242 (1). R60-R67. doi:10.1177/002795011724200115 ISSN 0027-9501.
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Official URL: http://doi.org/10.1177/002795011724200115
Abstract
We analyse TFP growth in the US business sector using a basic unobserved component model where trend growth follows a random walk and the noise is a first order autoregression. This is fitted using a Kalman-filter methodology. We find that trend TFP growth has declined steadily from 1.5 to 1.0 per cent per year over the past 50 years. Nevertheless, recent trends are not a good guide to actual medium-term TFP growth. This exhibits substantial variations and is quite unpredictable. Techno-optimists should not give best to productivity pessimists simply because recent TFP growth has been weak.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions | ||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics | ||||||||
| SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | ||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Industrial productivity -- United States, Industrial productivity -- Mathematical models, Industrial productivity -- Effect of technological innovations on | ||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | National Institute Economic Review | ||||||||
| Publisher: | Sage Publications Ltd. | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 0027-9501 | ||||||||
| Official Date: | 1 November 2017 | ||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 242 | ||||||||
| Number: | 1 | ||||||||
| Page Range: | R60-R67 | ||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1177/002795011724200115 | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 12 January 2018 | ||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 14 June 2018 |
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