French, Simon, Argyris, Nikolaos, Haywood, Stephanie M., Hort, Matthew C. and Smith, J. Q. (2019) Communicating geographical risks in crisis management : the need for research. Risk Analysis, 39 (1). pp. 9-16. doi:10.1111/risa.12904

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Abstract

In any crisis, there is a great deal of uncertainty, often geographical uncertainty or, more precisely, spatiotemporal uncertainty. Examples include the spread of contamination from an industrial accident, drifting volcanic ash, and the path of a hurricane. Estimating spatiotemporal probabilities is usually a difficult task, but that is not our primary concern. Rather, we ask how analysts can communicate spatiotemporal uncertainty to those handling the crisis. We comment on the somewhat limited literature on the representation of spatial uncertainty on maps. We note that many cognitive issues arise and that the potential for confusion is high. We note that in the early stages of handling a crisis, the uncertainties involved may be deep, i.e., difficult or impossible to quantify in the time available. In such circumstance, we suggest the idea of presenting multiple scenarios.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Statistics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Risk communication, Crisis management -- Data processing, Emergency management -- Data processing, Earth sciences -- Statistical methods, Geographic information systems
Journal or Publication Title:	Risk Analysis
Publisher:	Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
ISSN:	0272-4332
Official Date:	January 2019
Dates:	Date Event January 2019 Published 23 October 2017 Available 9 August 2017 Accepted 29 September 2016 Submitted
Date of first compliant deposit:	18 December 2017
Volume:	39
Number:	1
Page Range:	pp. 9-16
DOI:	10.1111/risa.12904
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:	Project/Grant ID RIOXX Funder Name Funder ID UNSPECIFIED Health Protection Agency (Great Britain). Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling Liaison Committee https://viaf.org/viaf/265311122

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