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Communicating geographical risks in crisis management : the need for research
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French, Simon, Argyris, Nikolaos, Haywood, Stephanie M., Hort, Matthew C. and Smith, J. Q. (2019) Communicating geographical risks in crisis management : the need for research. Risk Analysis, 39 (1). pp. 9-16. doi:10.1111/risa.12904
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/risa.12904
Abstract
In any crisis, there is a great deal of uncertainty, often geographical uncertainty or, more precisely, spatiotemporal uncertainty. Examples include the spread of contamination from an industrial accident, drifting volcanic ash, and the path of a hurricane. Estimating spatiotemporal probabilities is usually a difficult task, but that is not our primary concern. Rather, we ask how analysts can communicate spatiotemporal uncertainty to those handling the crisis. We comment on the somewhat limited literature on the representation of spatial uncertainty on maps. We note that many cognitive issues arise and that the potential for confusion is high. We note that in the early stages of handling a crisis, the uncertainties involved may be deep, i.e., difficult or impossible to quantify in the time available. In such circumstance, we suggest the idea of presenting multiple scenarios.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management Q Science > QA Mathematics |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Statistics | ||||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Risk communication, Crisis management -- Data processing, Emergency management -- Data processing, Earth sciences -- Statistical methods, Geographic information systems | ||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Risk Analysis | ||||||||||
| Publisher: | Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd. | ||||||||||
| ISSN: | 0272-4332 | ||||||||||
| Official Date: | January 2019 | ||||||||||
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| Volume: | 39 | ||||||||||
| Number: | 1 | ||||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 9-16 | ||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1111/risa.12904 | ||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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