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Rogue waves and large deviations in deep sea
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Dematteis, Giovanni, Grafke, Tobias and Vanden-Eijnden, Eric (2018) Rogue waves and large deviations in deep sea. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115 (5). pp. 855-860. doi:10.1073/pnas.1710670115
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WRAP-Rogue-waves-large-deviations-deep-sea-Grafke-2018.pdf - Accepted Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Download (3318Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1710670115
Abstract
Quantifying the departure from Gaussianity of the wave-height distribution in the seas and thereby estimating the likelihood of appearance of rogue waves is a long-standing problem with important practical implications for boats and naval structures. Here, a procedure is introduced to identify ocean states that are precursors to rogue waves, which could permit their early detection. Our findings indicate that rogue waves obey a large deviation principle—i.e., they are dominated by single realizations—which our method calculates by solving an optimization problem. The method generalizes to estimate the probability of extreme events in other deterministic dynamical systems with random initial data and/or parameters, by using prior information about the nature of their statistics.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QC Physics |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Mathematics | |||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Rogue waves , Rogue waves--Mathematical models, Laplace transformation, Instantons, Wave equation, Monte Carlo method | |||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America | |||||||||
| Publisher: | National Academy of Sciences | |||||||||
| ISSN: | 0027-8424 | |||||||||
| Official Date: | January 2018 | |||||||||
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| Volume: | 115 | |||||||||
| Number: | 5 | |||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 855-860 | |||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1073/pnas.1710670115 | |||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | |||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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