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Hepatitis-B virus endemicity: heterogeneity, catastrophic dynamics and control
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UNSPECIFIED (2001) Hepatitis-B virus endemicity: heterogeneity, catastrophic dynamics and control. Nature, 7 (5). pp. 619-624. ISSN 1078-8956.
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Abstract
Hepatitis-B virus infection is globally ubiquitous, but its distribution is very heterogeneous, with prevalence of serological markers in various nations ranging from less than 1% to more than 90%. We propose an explanation for this diversity using a mathematical model of hepatitis-B virus transmission dynamics that shows, for the first time,'catastrophic' behavior using realistic epidemiological processes and parameters. Our major conclusion is that the prevalence of infection is largely determined by a feedback mechanism that relates the rate of transmission, average age at infection and age-related probability of developing carriage following infection. Using the model we identify possible, highly non-linear, consequences of chemotherapy and immunization interventions, for which the starting prevalence of carriers is the most influential, predictive quantity. Taken together, our results demand a re-evaluation of public health policy towards hepatitis-B.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
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Subjects: | Q Science > QD Chemistry Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology R Medicine |
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Journal or Publication Title: | Nature | ||||
Publisher: | NATURE AMERICA INC | ||||
ISSN: | 1078-8956 | ||||
Official Date: | May 2001 | ||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 7 | ||||
Number: | 5 | ||||
Number of Pages: | 6 | ||||
Page Range: | pp. 619-624 | ||||
Publication Status: | Published |
Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge
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