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THE SHRINKAGE OF POINT SCORING METHODS
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UNSPECIFIED (1993) THE SHRINKAGE OF POINT SCORING METHODS. APPLIED STATISTICS-JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C, 42 (2). pp. 315-331. ISSN 0035-9254.
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Abstract
Point scoring, widely used in criminology and other social sciences, is a simple way of predicting a binary response on the basis of binary explanatory variables. Like all statistical predictors they are liable to shrinkage, working less well on a validation sample than they appear to do on the original data. The paper examines the extent of shrinkage and proposes shrinkage-adjusted predictions. The related 'independence Bayes' method is also considered, and found to shrink more than the basic point scoring method. The results are applied to data from a cohort study in the development of delinquency.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
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Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics | ||||
Journal or Publication Title: | APPLIED STATISTICS-JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C | ||||
Publisher: | BLACKWELL PUBL LTD | ||||
ISSN: | 0035-9254 | ||||
Official Date: | 1993 | ||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 42 | ||||
Number: | 2 | ||||
Number of Pages: | 17 | ||||
Page Range: | pp. 315-331 | ||||
Publication Status: | Published |
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