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Mathematical modelling of epidemic systems influenced by maternal antibodies and public health intervention
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Chapman, James D. (2010) Mathematical modelling of epidemic systems influenced by maternal antibodies and public health intervention. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.
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Official URL: http://webcat.warwick.ac.uk/record=b2482459~S15
Abstract
The general subject area of research considered in this thesis is population level
epidemic modelling of infectious diseases, with specific application to the problems
of model indeterminacy and systems that include processes associated with
maternally acquired immunity. The work presents the derivation and analysis of
a lumped systems model framework to study the influence of maternal antibodies
on the population dynamics of infection among neonate and young infant age
classes. The proposed models are defined by sets of ordinary and partial differential
equations that describe the variation of distinct states in the natural history
of infection with respect to time and/or age.
The model framework is extended to explore the potential population level outcomes
and consequences of mass maternal immunisation: an emerging targeted
vaccine strategy that utilises the active transfer of neutralising antibodies during
pregnancy in order to supplement neonatal immunity during the first few months
of life. A qualitative analysis of these models has highlighted the importance of
interaction with early childhood targeted vaccination campaigns, the potential to
invoke transient epidemic behaviour and the prospective advantages of seasonal
administration.
The work considers the implications of structural identifiability, indistinguishability
and formal sensitivity analyses on a number of fundamental model structures
within the proposed framework. These methods are used to establish whether a
postulated model structure, or the individual parameters within a known structure,
are uniquely determinable from a given set of empirical observations. The
main epidemiological measures available for the validation of epidemic models are
inherently based on records of clinical disease or age serological surveys, which are
not explicitly representative of infection and provide a very limited observation
of the full system state. The analyses suggest that these issues give rise to problems
of indeterminacy even in the most simple models, such that certain system
characteristics cannot be uniquely estimated from available data.
Item Type: | Thesis (PhD) | ||||
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Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine |
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Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Communicable diseases in newborn infants -- Mathematical models, Epidemics -- Mathematical models, Immunization -- Mathematical models | ||||
Official Date: | September 2010 | ||||
Dates: |
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Institution: | University of Warwick | ||||
Theses Department: | School of Engineering | ||||
Thesis Type: | PhD | ||||
Publication Status: | Unpublished | ||||
Supervisor(s)/Advisor: | Evans, Neil D. | ||||
Sponsors: | University of Warwick. Dept. of Engineering ; Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) | ||||
Extent: | xv, 202 leaves : ill., charts | ||||
Language: | eng |
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