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Optimal but unequitable prophylactic distribution of vaccine
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Keeling, Matthew James and Shattock, Andrew (2012) Optimal but unequitable prophylactic distribution of vaccine. Epidemics, Vol.4 (No.2). pp. 78-85. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2012.03.001 ISSN 17554365.
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Text (published as an Open Access article)
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2012.03.001
Abstract
The final epidemic size (R∞) remains one of the fundamental outcomes of an epidemic, and measures the total number of individuals infected during a "free-fall" epidemic when no additional control action is taken. As such, it provides an idealised measure for optimising control policies before an epidemic arises. Although the generality of formulae for calculating the final epidemic size have been discussed previously, we offer an alternative probabilistic argument and then use this formula to consider the optimal deployment of vaccine in spatially segregated populations that minimises the total number of cases. We show that for a limited stockpile of vaccine, the optimal policy is often to immunise one population to the exclusion of others. However, as greater realism is included, this extreme and arguably unethical policy, is replaced by an optimal strategy where vaccine supply is more evenly spatially distributed.
Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||
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Subjects: | R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine | |||||||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics |
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Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Epidemics -- Mathematical models, Vaccination -- Mathematical models | |||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Epidemics | |||||||||
Publisher: | Elsevier Science BV | |||||||||
ISSN: | 17554365 | |||||||||
Official Date: | 2012 | |||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | Vol.4 | |||||||||
Number: | No.2 | |||||||||
Page Range: | pp. 78-85 | |||||||||
DOI: | 10.1016/j.epidem.2012.03.001 | |||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | |||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 22 December 2015 | |||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 22 December 2015 | |||||||||
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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