2023

Chan, Y. L. Elaine, Irvine, Michael A., Prystajecky, Natalie, Sbihi, Hind, Marsha, Taylor, Joffres , Yayuk, Schertzer, Andrea, Rose, Caren, Dyson, Louise, Hill, Edward M., Tildesley, Michael J., Tyson, John R., Hoang, Linda M. N. and Galanis, Eleni (2023) Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and effect of nonpharmaceutical interventions, British Columbia, Canada. Emerging Infectious Diseases , 29 (10). pp. 1999-2007. doi:10.3201/eid2910.230055 ISSN 1080-6059.

Hill, Edward M., Prosser, Naomi S., Brown, Paul E., Ferguson, Eamonn, Green, Martin J., Kaler, Jasmeet, Keeling, Matt J. and Tildesley, Michael J. (2023) Incorporating heterogeneity in farmer disease control behaviour into a livestock disease transmission model. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 219 . 106019. doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2023.106019 ISSN 0167-5877.

de Klerk, Joanna N., Gorsich, Erin E., Grewar, John D., Atkins, Benjamin D., Tennant, Warren, Labuschagne, Karien and Tildesley, Michael J. (2023) Modelling African horse sickness emergence and transmission in the South African control area using a deterministic metapopulation approach. PLOS Computational Biology, 19 (9). e1011448. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011448 ISSN 1553-7358.

Guzmán-Rincón, Laura M., Hill, Edward M., Dyson, Louise, Tildesley, Michael J. and Keeling, Matt J. (2023) Bayesian estimation of real-time epidemic growth rates using Gaussian processes : local dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in England. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics . qlad056. doi:10.1093/jrsssc/qlad056 ISSN 1467-9876. (In Press)

(2023) Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120 (18). e2207537120. doi:10.1073/pnas.2207537120 ISSN 1091-6490.

Eames, Ken T. D., Tang, Maria L., Hill, Edward M., Tildesley, Michael J., Read, Jonathan M., Keeling, Matt J. and Gog, Julia R. (2023) Coughs, colds and “freshers’ flu” survey in the University of Cambridge, 2007–2008. Epidemics, 42 . 100659. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100659 ISSN 1755-4365.

Beck-Johnson, L. M., Gorsich, Erin E., Hallman, C., Tildesley, M. J., Miller, R. S. and Webb, C. T. (2023) An exploration of within-herd dynamics of a transboundary livestock disease : a foot and mouth disease case study. Epidemics, 42 . 100668. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100668 ISSN 1755-4365.

Althobaity, Yehya and Tildesley, Michael J. (2023) Modelling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia. Scientific Reports, 13 (1). 843. doi:10.1038/s41598-022-26468-5 ISSN 2045-2322.

2022

Moore, Sam, Hill, Edward M., Dyson, Louise, Tildesley, Michael J. and Keeling, Matt J. (2022) Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature Medicine, 28 . pp. 2416-2423. doi:10.1038/s41591-022-02064-y ISSN 1078-8956.

Gilbertson, Kendra, Brommesson, Peter, Minter, Amanda, Hallman, Clayton, Miller, Ryan S., Portacci, Katie, Sellman, Stefan, Tildesley, Michael J., Webb, Colleen T., Lindström, Tom and Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M. (2022) The importance of livestock demography and infrastructure in driving Foot and Mouth disease dynamics. Life, 12 (10). 1604. doi:10.3390/life12101604 ISSN 2075-1729.

Probert, William J. M. , Nicol, Sam, Ferrari, Matthew J., Li, Shou-Li, Shea, Katriona, Tildesley, Michael J. and Runge, Michael C. (2022) Vote-processing rules for combining control recommendations from multiple models. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 380 (2233). doi:10.1098/rsta.2021.0314 ISSN 1364-503X.

Prosser, Naomi S., Hill, Edward M., Armstrong, Derek, Gow, Lorna, Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matt J., Kaler, Jasmeet, Ferguson, Eamonn and Green, Martin J. (2022) Descriptive analysis of national bovine viral diarrhoea test data in England. Veterinary Record, 191 (5). e1854. doi:10.1002/vetr.1854 ISSN 2042-7670.

Prosser, Naomi S., Hill, Edward M., Armstrong, Derek, Gow, Lorna, Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matthew James, Kaler, Jasmeet, Ferguson, Eamonn and Green, Martin J. (2022) Descriptive analysis of national bovine viral diarrhoea test data in England (2016–2020). Veterinary Record, 191 (5). e1854. doi:10.1002/vetr.1854 ISSN 2042-7670.

Althobaity, Yehya, Wu, Jianhong and Tildesley, Michael J. (2022) Non-pharmaceutical interventions and their relevance in the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Saudi Arabia and Arab Gulf countries. Infectious Disease Modelling, 7 (3). pp. 545-560. doi:10.1016/j.idm.2022.08.005 ISSN 2468-0427.

Keeling, Matt J., Dyson, Louise, Guyver-Fletcher, Glen, Holmes, Alexander, Semple, Malcolm G., Tildesley, Michael J. and Hill, Edward M. (2022) Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number. Statistical Methods in Medical Research , 31 (9). pp. 1716-1737. doi:10.1177/09622802211070257 ISSN 0962-2802.

Althobaity, Yehya, Wu, Jianhong and Tildesley, Michael J. (2022) A comparative analysis of epidemiological characteristics of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 in Saudi Arabia. Infectious Disease Modelling, 7 (3). pp. 473-485. doi:10.1016/j.idm.2022.07.002 ISSN 24680427.

Keeling, Matthew James, Dyson, Louise, Tildesley, Michael J., Hill, Edward M. and Moore, Sam (2022) Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England. Nature Communications, 13 . 4924. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-31991-0 ISSN 2041-1723.

Hill, Alison L., Herrera-Diestra, José L., Tildesley, Michael, Shea, Katriona and Ferrari, Matthew J. (2022) Cattle transport network predicts endemic and epidemic foot-and-mouth disease risk on farms in Turkey. PLoS Computational Biology, 18 (8). e1010354. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010354 ISSN 1553-7358.

Tildesley, Michael J., Vassall, Anna, Riley, Steven, Jit, Mark, Sandmann, Frank, Hill, Edward M., Thompson, Robin N., Atkins, Benjamin D., Edmunds, John, Dyson, Louise and Keeling, Matt J. (2022) Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England : a mathematical modelling study. Royal Society Open Science, 9 (8). 211746. doi:10.1098/rsos.211746 ISSN 2054-5703.

Hill, Edward M., Prosser, Naomi S., Ferguson, Eamonn, Kaler, Jasmeet, Green, Martin J., Keeling, Matt J. and Tildesley, Michael J. (2022) Modelling livestock infectious disease control policy under differing social perspectives on vaccination behaviour. PLOS Computational Biology, 18 (7). e1010235. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010235 ISSN 1553-7358.

Fairbanks, Emma L., Brennan, Marnie L., Mertens, Peter P. C., Tildesley, Michael J. and Daly, Janet M. (2022) Re‐parameterization of a mathematical model of African horse sickness virus using data from a systematic literature search. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 69 (4). pp. 671-681. doi:10.1111/tbed.14420 ISSN 1865-1674.

Leng, Trystan, Hill, Edward M., Keeling, Matt J., Tildesley, Michael J. and Thompson, Robin N. (2022) The effect of notification window length on the epidemiological impact of COVID-19 contact tracing mobile applications. Communications Medicine, 2 . 74. doi:10.1038/s43856-022-00143-2 ISSN 2730-664X.

Fairbanks, Emma L., Baylis, Matthew, Daly, Janet M. and Tildesley, Michael J. (2022) Inference for a spatio-temporal model with partial spatial data : African horse sickness virus in Morocco. Epidemics, 39 . 100566. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100566 ISSN 17554365.

Leng, Trystan, Hill, Edward M., Thompson, Robin N., Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matt J. and Dyson, Louise (2022) Assessing the impact of lateral flow testing strategies on within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and absences : a modelling study. PLOS Computational Biology, 18 (5). e1010158. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010158 ISSN 1553-7358.

Rysava, Kristyna, Espineda, Jason, Silo, Eva Angela V., Carino, Sarah, Aringo, Ariane Mae, Bernales, Rona P., Adonay, Florencio F., Tildesley, Michael J. and Hampson, Katie (2022) One health surveillance for rabies : a case study of integrated bite case management in Albay Province, Philippines. Frontiers in Tropical Diseases, 3 . 787524. doi:10.3389/fitd.2022.787524 ISSN 2673-7515.

Leng, Trystan, Hill, Edward M., Holmes, Alexander, Southall, Emma, Thompson, Robin N., Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matt J. and Dyson, Louise (2022) Quantifying pupil-to-pupil SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of lateral flow testing in English secondary schools. Nature Communications, 13 (1). 1106. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28731-9 ISSN 2041-1723.

Kretzschmar, Mirjam E., Ashby, Ben, Fearon, Elizabeth, Overton, Christopher E., Panovska-Griffiths, Jasmina, Pellis, Lorenzo, Quaife, Matthew, Rozhnova, Ganna, Scarabel, Francesca, Stage, Helena B., Swallow, Ben, Thompson, Robin N., Tildesley, Michael J. and Villela, Daniel (2022) Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics. Epidemics, 38 . 100546. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100546 ISSN 1755-4365.

Holmes, Alexander, Tildesley, Michael J. and Dyson, Louise (2022) Approximating steady state distributions for household structured epidemic models. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 534 . 110974. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110974 ISSN 0022-5193.

2021

Guyver‐Fletcher, Glen, Gorsich, Erin E. and Tildesley, Michael J. (2021) A model exploration of carrier and movement transmission as potential explanatory causes for the persistence of foot‐and‐mouth disease in endemic regions. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases . doi:10.1111/tbed.14423 ISSN 1865-1674.

Keeling, Matthew James, Guyver-Fletcher, Glen, Dyson, Louise, Tildesley, Michael J., Hill, Edward M. and Medley, Graham F. (2021) Precautionary breaks : planned, limited duration circuit breaks to control the prevalence of SARS-CoV2 and the burden of COVID-19 disease. Epidemics, 37 . 100526. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100526 ISSN 1755-4365.

Howerton, Emily, Ferrari, Matthew J., Bjørnstad, Ottar N., Bogich, Tiffany L., Borchering, Rebecca K., Jewell, Chris P., Nichols, James D., Probert, William J. M. , Runge, Michael C., Tildesley, Michael J., Viboud, Cécile and Shea, Katriona (2021) Synergistic interventions to control COVID-19 : mass testing and isolation mitigates reliance on distancing. PLOS Computational Biology, 17 (10). e1009518. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009518 ISSN 1553-7358.

Dyson, Louise, Hill, Edward M., Moore, Sam, Curran-Sebastian, Jacob, Tildesley, Michael J., Lythgoe, Katrina A., House, Thomas, Pellis, Lorenzo and Keeling, Matthew James (2021) Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics. Nature Communications, 12 . 5730. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7 ISSN 2041-1723.

Southall, Emma, Brett, Tobias S., Tildesley, Michael J. and Dyson, Louise (2021) Early warning signals of infectious disease transitions : a review. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 18 (182). 20210555. doi:10.1098/rsif.2021.0555

Tennant, Warren, Cardinale, Eric, Cêtre-Sossah, Catherine, Moutroifi, Youssouf, Le Godais, Gilles, Colombi, Davide, Spencer, Simon E. F., Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matt J., Charafouddine, Onzade, Colizza, Vittoria, Edmunds, W. John and Métras, Raphaëlle (2021) Modelling the persistence and control of Rift Valley fever virus in a spatially heterogeneous landscape. Nature Communications, 12 (1). 5593. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-25833-8 ISSN 2041-1723.

Hill, Edward M., Atkins, Benjamin D., Keeling, Matt J., Tildesley, Michael J. and Dyson, Louise (2021) Modelling SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a UK university setting. Epidemics, 36 . 100476. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100476 ISSN 1755-4365.

Enright, Jessica, Hill, Edward M., Stage, Helena B., Bolton, Kirsty J., Nixon, Emily J., Fairbanks, Emma L., Tang, Maria L., Brooks-Pollock, Ellen, Dyson, Louise, Budd, Chris J., Hoyle, Rebecca B., Schewe, Lars, Gog, Julia R. and Tildesley, Michael J. (2021) SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students : lessons from September–December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return. Royal Society Open Science , 8 (8). 210310. doi:10.1098/rsos.210310 ISSN 2054-5703.

Keeling, Matt J., Tildesley, Michael J., Atkins, Benjamin D., Penman, Bridget S., Southall, Emma, Guyver-Fletcher, Glen, Holmes, Alexander, McKimm, Hector, Gorsich, Erin E., Hill, Edward M. and Dyson, Louise (2021) The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 376 (1829). 20200261. doi:10.1098/rstb.2020.0261 ISSN 0962-8436.

Nichols, James D., Bogich, Tiffany L., Howerton, Emily, Bjørnstad, Ottar N., Borchering, Rebecca K., Ferrari, Matthew, Haran, Murali, Jewell, Christopher, Pepin, Kim M., Probert, William J. M., Pulliam, Juliet R. C., Runge, Michael C., Tildesley, Michael J., Viboud, Cécile and Shea, Katriona (2021) Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making. PLoS Biology, 19 (6). e3001307. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.3001307 ISSN 1545-7885.

Hill, Edward M., Atkins, Benjamin D., Keeling, Matt J., Dyson, Louise and Tildesley, Michael J. (2021) A network modelling approach to assess non-pharmaceutical disease controls in a worker population : an application to SARS-CoV-2. PLoS Computational Biology, 17 (6). e1009058. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009058 ISSN 1553-7358.

Southall, Emma, Holmes, Alexander, Hill, Edward M., Atkins, Benjamin D., Leng, Trystan, Thompson, Robin N., Dyson, Louise, Keeling, Matthew James and Tildesley, Michael J. (2021) An analysis of school absences in England during the COVID-19 pandemic. BMC Medicine, 19 (1). 137. doi:10.1186/s12916-021-01990-x ISSN 1741-7015.

Moore, Sam, Hill, Edward M., Tildesley, Michael J., Dyson, Louise and Keeling, Matt J. (2021) Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 : a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Infectious Diseases, 21 (6). pp. 793-802. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00143-2 ISSN 1473-3099.

Tao, Yun, Probert, William J. M. , Shea, Katriona, Runge, Michael C., Lafferty, Kevin, Tildesley, Michael J. and Ferrari, Matthew (2021) Causes of delayed outbreak responses and their impacts on epidemic spread. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 18 (176). 20200933. doi:10.1098/rsif.2020.0933 ISSN 1742-5689.

Keeling, Matt J., Hill, Edward M., Gorsich, Erin E., Penman, Bridget S., Guyver-Fletcher, Glen, Holmes, Alexander, Leng, Trystan, McKimm, Hector, Tamborrino, Massimiliano, Dyson, Louise and Tildesley, Michael J. (2021) Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK : short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies. PLoS Computational Biology, 17 (1). e1008619. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008619 ISSN 1553-7358.

Moore, Sam, Hill, Edward M., Dyson, Louise, Tildesley, Michael J. and Keeling, Matt J. (2021) Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 in the UK. PLoS Computational Biology, 17 (5). e1008849. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008849 ISSN 1553-7358.

2020

Atkins, Benjamin D., Jewell, Chris P., Runge, Michael C., Ferrari, Matthew J., Shea, Katriona, Probert, William J. M. and Tildesley, Michael J. (2020) Anticipating future learning affects current control decisions : a comparison between passive and active adaptive management in an epidemiological setting. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 506 . 110380. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110380 ISSN 0022-5193.

Holmes, Alexander, Tildesley, Michael J., Solomon, Anthony W., Mabey, David C. W., Sokana, Oliver, Marks, Michael and Dyson, Louise (2020) Modelling treatment strategies to inform Yaws eradication. Emerging Infectious Diseases , 26 (11). pp. 2685-2693. doi:10.3201/eid2611.191491 ISSN 1080-6059.

van Andel, Mary, Tildesley, Michael J. and Gates, M. Carolyn (2020) Challenges and opportunities for using national animal datasets to support foot‐and‐mouth disease control. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases . doi:10.1111/tbed.13858 ISSN 1865-1674.

Southall, Emma, Tildesley, Michael J. and Dyson, Louise (2020) Prospects for detecting early warning signals in discrete event sequence data : application to epidemiological incidence data. PLoS Computational Biology, 16 (9). e1007836. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007836 ISSN 1553-7358.

Shea, Katriona, Runge, Michael C., Pannell, David, Probert, William J. M., Li, Shou-Li, Tildesley, Michael J. and Ferrari, Matthew (2020) Harnessing multiple models for outbreak management. Science, 368 (6491). pp. 577-579. doi:10.1126/science.abb9934 ISSN 0036-8075.

Sellman, Stefan, Tildesley, Michael J., Burdett, Christopher L., Miller, Ryan S., Hallman, Clayton, Webb, Colleen T., Wennergren, Uno, Portacci, Katie and Lindström, Tom (2020) Realistic assumptions about spatial locations and clustering of premises matter for models of foot-and-mouth disease spread in the United States. PLoS Computational Biology, 16 (2). e1007641. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007641 ISSN 1553-7358.

Tennant, Warren, Tildesley, Michael J., Spencer, Simon E. F. and Keeling, Matthew James (2020) Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898–1949. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 287 (1928). 20200538. doi:10.1098/rspb.2020.0538 ISSN 0962-8452.

Pollington, Timothy, Tildesley, Michael J., Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre and Chapman, Lloyd A. C. (2020) Developments in statistical inference when assessing spatiotemporal disease clustering with the tau statistic. Spatial Statistics . 100438. doi:10.1016/j.spasta.2020.100438 ISSN 2211-6753.

(2020) Rapid in-country sequencing of whole virus genomes to inform rabies elimination programmes. Wellcome Open Research, 5 . doi:10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15518.1 ISSN 2398-502X.

Hampson, Katie, Abela-Ridder, Bernadette, Changalucha, Joel, Cleaveland, Sarah, Knopf, Lea, Lushasi, Kennedy, Miranda, Mary Elizabeth, Thumbi, SM, Rysava, Kristyna, Tenzin, Tenzin, Tildesley, Michael, Wallace, Ryan and Trotter, Caroline (2020) Zero human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030 : perspectives from quantitative and mathematical modelling. Gates Open Research, 3 . p. 1564. doi:10.12688/gatesopenres.13074.2

2019

Tsao, Kimberly, Sellman, Stefan, Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M., Murrieta, Deedra J., Hallman, Clayton, Lindström, Tom, Miller, Ryan S., Portacci, Katie, Tildesley, Michael J. and Webb, Colleen T. (2019) Effects of regional differences and demography in modelling foot-and-mouth disease in cattle at the national scale. Interface Focus, 10 (1). 20190054. doi:10.1098/rsfs.2019.0054 ISSN 2042-8898.

Dessavre, Adjani Gama, Southall, Emma, Tildesley, Michael J. and Dyson, Louise (2019) The problem of detrending when analysing potential indicators of disease elimination. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 481 . pp. 183-193. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.04.011 ISSN 0022-5193.

Dyson, Louise, Mooring, Eric Q., Holmes, Alexander, Tildesley, Michael J. and Marks, Michael (2019) Insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling on the proposed 2030 goals for yaws. Gates Open Research, 3 . 1576. doi:10.12688/gatesopenres.13078.1 ISSN 2572-4754.

Tildesley, Michael J., Brand, Samuel, Brooks Pollock, E., Bradbury, Naomi, Werkman, Marleen and Keeling, Matthew James (2019) The role of movement restrictions in limiting the economic impact of livestock infections. Nature Sustainability, 2 . pp. 834-840. doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0356-5 ISSN 2398-9629.

Chaiban, Celia, Biscio, Christophe, Thanapongtharm, Weerapong, Tildesley, Michael J., Xiao, Xiangming, Robinson, Timothy P., Vanwambeke, Sophie O. and Gilbert, Marius (2019) Point pattern simulation modelling of extensive and intensive chicken farming in Thailand : accounting for clustering and landscape characteristics. Agricultural Systems, 173 . pp. 335-344. doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2019.03.004 ISSN 0308-521X.

Li, Shou-Li, Ferrari, Matthew J., Bjørnstad, Ottar N., Runge, Michael C., Fonnesbeck, Christopher J., Tildesley, Michael J., Pannell, David and Shea, Katriona (2019) Concurrent assessment of epidemiological and operational uncertainties for optimal outbreak control : Ebola as a case study. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 286 (1905). 20190774. doi:10.1098/rspb.2019.0774 ISSN 0962-8452.

Arzt, Jonathan, Branan, Matthew A., Delgado, Amy H., Yadav, Shankar, Moreno-Torres, Karla I., Tildesley, Michael J. and Stenfeldt, Carolina (2019) Quantitative impacts of incubation phase transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus. Scientific Reports, 9 (1). 2707. doi:10.1038/s41598-019-39029-0 ISSN 2045-2322.

Probert, W. J. M., Lakkur, S., Fonnesbeck, C. J., Shea, K., Runge, M. C., Tildesley, M. J. and Ferrari, M. J. (2019) Context matters: using reinforcement learning to develop human-readable, state-dependent outbreak response policies. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 374 (1776). p. 20180277. doi:10.1098/rstb.2018.0277 ISSN 0962-8436.

2018

Retkute, Renata, Jewell, Chris P., Van Boeckel, Thomas P., Zhang, Geli, Xiao, Xiangming, Thanapongtharme, Weerapong, Keeling, Matthew James, Gilbert, Marius and Tildesley, Michael J. (2018) Dynamics of the 2004 avian influenza H5N1 outbreak in Thailand : the role of duck farming, sequential model fitting and control. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 159 . pp. 171-181. doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2018.09.014 ISSN 0167-5877.

Hill, Edward M., House, Thomas A., Dhingra, Madhur S., Kalpravidh, Wantanee, Morzaria, Subhash, Osmani, Muzaffar G., Brum, Eric, Yamage, Mat, Kalam, Md. A., Prosser, Diann J., Takekawa, John Y., Xiao, Xiangming, Gilbert, Marius and Tildesley, Michael J. (2018) The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh. PLOS Computational Biology, 14 (9). e1006439. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006439 ISSN 1553-7358.

Koelle, Katia, Probert, William J. M. , Jewell, Chris P., Werkman, Marleen, Fonnesbeck, Christopher J., Goto, Yoshitaka, Runge, Michael C., Sekiguchi, Satoshi, Shea, Katriona, Keeling, Matthew James, Ferrari, Matthew J. and Tildesley, Michael J. (2018) Real-time decision-making during emergency disease outbreaks. PLoS Computational Biology, 14 (7). e1006202. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006202 ISSN 1553-7358.

Meadows, Amanda J., Mundt, Christopher C., Keeling, Matthew James and Tildesley, Michael J. (2018) Disentangling the influence of livestock vs. farm density on livestock disease epidemics. Ecosphere, 9 (7). e02294. doi:10.1002/ecs2.2294 ISSN 2150-8925.

Sellman, Stefan, Tsao, Kimberly, Tildesley, Michael J., Brommesson, Peter, Webb, Colleen T., Wennergren, Uno, Keeling, Matthew James and Lindström, Tom (2018) Need for speed : an optimized gridding approach for spatially explicit disease simulations. PLOS Computational Biology, 14 (4). e1006086. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006086 ISSN 1553-7358.

2017

Gilbert, Marius, Prosser, Diann J., Zhang, Geli, Artois, Jean, Dhingra, Madhur S., Tildesley, Michael J., Newman, Scott H., Guo, Fusheng, Black, Peter, Claes, Filip, Kalpradvidh, Wantanee, Shin, YeunKyung, Jeong, Wooseog, Takekawa, John Y., Lee, Hansoo and Xiao, Xiangming (2017) Could changes in the agricultural landscape of northeastern China have influenced the long-distance transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5Nx viruses? Frontiers In Veterinary Science, 4 (225). 04-00225. doi:10.3389/fvets.2017.00225 ISSN 2297-1769.

Hill, Edward M., Tildesley, Michael J. and House, Thomas A. (2017) How predictable are flu pandemics? Significance, 14 (6). pp. 28-33. doi:10.1111/j.1740-9713.2017.01090.x ISSN 1740-9705.

Hill, Edward M., House, Thomas A., Dhingra, Madhur S., Kalpravidh, Wantanee, Morzaria, Subhash, Osmani, Muzaffar G., Yamage, Mat, Xiao, Xiangming, Gilbert, Marius and Tildesley, Michael J. (2017) Modelling H5N1 in Bangladesh across spatial scales : model complexity and zoonotic transmission risk. Epidemics, 20 . pp. 37-55. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.007 ISSN 1755-4365.

Li, Shou-Li, Bjørnstad, Ottar N., Ferrari, Matthew J., Mummah, Riley, Runge, Michael C., Fonnesbeck, Christopher J., Tildesley, Michael J., Probert, William J. M. and Shea, Katriona (2017) Essential information : uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114 (22). pp. 5659-5664. 201617482. doi:10.1073/pnas.1617482114 ISSN 0027-8424.

Hill, Edward M., Tildesley, Michael J. and House, Thomas A. (2017) Evidence for history-dependence of influenza pandemic emergence. Scientific Reports, 7 . 43623. doi:10.1038/srep43623 ISSN 2045-2322.

Webb, Colleen, Ferrari, Matthew, Lindstrom, Tom, Carpenter, Tim, Durr, Salome, Garner, Graeme, Jewell, Chris, Stevenson, Mark, Ward, Michael, Werkman, Marleen, Backer, Jantien and Tildesley, Michael J. (2017) Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support emergency disease management. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 138 . pp. 124-133. ISSN 0167-5877.

Bradbury, Naomi V., Probert, William J. M. , Shea, Katriona, Runge, Michael C., Fonnesbeck, Christopher J., Keeling, Matthew James, Ferrari, Matthew J. and Tildesley, Michael J. (2017) Quantifying the value of perfect information in emergency vaccination campaigns. PLoS Computational Biology, 13 (2). e1005318. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005318 ISSN 1553-7358.

Pomeroy, L. W., Bansal, S., Tildesley, M., Moreno-Torres, K. I., Moritz, M., Xiao, N., Carpenter, T. E. and Garabed, R. B. (2017) Data-driven models of foot-and-mouth disease dynamics : a review. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 64 (3). pp. 716-728. doi:10.1111/tbed.12437 ISSN 1865-1674.

2016

Werkman, Marleen, Tildesley, Michael J., Brooks-Pollock, Ellen and Keeling, Matthew James (2016) Preserving privacy whilst maintaining robust epidemiological predictions. Epidemics, 17 . pp. 35-41. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2016.10.004 ISSN 1755-4365.

Probert, William J. M. , Shea, Katriona, Fonnesbeck, Christopher J., Runge, Michael C., Carpenter, Tim E., Dürr, Salome, Garner, M. G. (Michael Graeme), Harvey, Neil, Stevenson, Mark A., Webb, Colleen T., Werkman, Marleen, Tildesley, Michael J. and Ferrari, Matthew J. (2016) Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control : objectives matter. Epidemics, 15 . pp. 10-19. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2015.11.002 ISSN 1755-4365.

2015

Dawson, Peter Michael, Werkman, Marleen, Brooks-Pollock, Ellen and Tildesley, Michael J. (2015) Epidemic predictions in an imperfect world : modelling disease spread with partial data. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Volume 282 (Number 1808). Article number 20150205. doi:10.1098/rspb.2015.0205 ISSN 0962-8452.

Lindström, Tom, Tildesley, Michael J. and Webb, Colleen T. (2015) A bayesian ensemble approach for epidemiological projections. PLoS Computational Biology, 11 (4). e1004187. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004187 ISSN 1553-7358.

Brand, Samuel, Tildesley, Michael J. and Keeling, Matthew James (2015) Rapid simulation of spatial epidemics : a spectral method. Journal of Theoretical Biology, Volume 370 . pp. 121-134. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.01.027 ISSN 0022-5193.

2014

Shea, Katriona, Tildesley, Michael J., Runge, Michael C., Fonnesbeck, Christopher J. and Ferrari, Matthew J. (2014) Adaptive management and the value of information : learning via intervention in epidemiology. PLoS Biology, 12 (10). e1001970. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1001970 ISSN 1545-7885.

Buhnerkempe, Michael G., Tildesley, Michael J., Lindström, Tom, Grear, Daniel A., Portacci, Katie, Miller, Ryan S., Lombard, Jason E., Werkman, Marleen, Keeling, Matthew James, Wennergren, Uno and Webb, Colleen T. (2014) The impact of movements and animal density on continental scale cattle disease outbreaks in the United States. PLoS One, Volume 9 (Number 3). Article number e91724. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0091724 ISSN 1932-6203.

2013

Van Boeckel, Thomas P., Tildesley, Michael J., Linard, Catherine, Halloy, José, Keeling, Matthew James and Gilbert, Marius (2013) The Nosoi commute : a spatial perspective on the rise of BSL-4 laboratories in cities. UNSPECIFIED. Cornell University: arXiv. (Unpublished)

Porphyre, Thibaud, Auty, Harriet K., Tildesley, Michael J., Gunn, George J. and Woolhouse, M. E. J., (Mark E. J.) (2013) Vaccination against Foot-and-mouth disease : do initial conditions affect its benefit? PLOS ONE, Volume 8 (Number 10). Article number e77616. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0077616 ISSN 1932-6203.

2012

Yan, Lei, Gao, Yan, Zhang, Yong, Tildesley, Michael J., Liu, L, Zhang, Y, Wen, Leying, Wang, Wei, Li, Xiaodan, Hu, Ying, Bai, Tian, Wang, Min, Zeng, Yuhong, Wang, Dingming, Wang, Xianjun, Lan, Yu, Wang, Shiwen and Shu, Yuelong (2012) Epidemiological and virological characteristics of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in school outbreaks in China. PLoS One, Vol.7 (No.9). e45898. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0045898 ISSN 1932-6203.

Tildesley, Michael J., Smith, Gary and Keeling, Matthew James (2012) Modeling the spread and control of foot-and-mouth disease in Pennsylvania following its discovery and options for control. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Vol.104 (No.3-4). pp. 224-239. doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2011.11.007 ISSN 0167-5877.

Tildesley, Michael J., Gally, D. L., McNeilly, T. N., Low, J. C., Mahajan, A. and Savill, N. J. (2012) Insights into mucosal innate responses to Escherichia coli O157 : H7 colonization of cattle by mathematical modelling of excretion dynamics. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Vol.9 (No.68). pp. 518-527. doi:10.1098/rsif.2011.0293 ISSN 1742-5689.

Tildesley, Michael J. and Ryan, Sadie J. (2012) Disease prevention versus data privacy : using landcover maps to inform spatial epidemic models. PLoS Computational Biology, Vol.8 (No.11). e1002723. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002723 ISSN 1553-7358.

2011

Tildesley, Michael J., Volkova, Victoriya and Woolhouse, M. E. J. (Mark E. J.) (2011) Potential for epidemic take-off from the primary outbreak farm via livestock movements. BMC Veterinary Research, Vol.7 (No.1). p. 76. doi:10.1186/1746-6148-7-76 ISSN 1746-6148.

2010

Tildesley, Michael J., House, Thomas A., Bruhn, Mark C., Curry, Ross J., O'Neil, Maggie, Allpress, Justine L. E., Smith, Gary and Keeling, Matthew James (2010) Impact of spatial clustering on disease transmission and optimal control. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol.107 (No.3). pp. 1041-1046. doi:10.1073/pnas.0909047107 ISSN 0027-8424.

Deardon, Rob, Brooks, Stephen. P., Grenfell, Bryan T., Keeling, Matthew James, Tildesley, Michael J., Savill, Nicholas J., Shaw, Darren J. and Woolhouse, Mark E. J. (2010) Inference for individual-level models of infectious diseases in large populations. Statistica Sinica, Vol.20 (No.1). pp. 239-261. ISSN 1017-0405.

2009

Tildesley, Michael J., Bessell, Paul R., Keeling, Matthew James and Woolhouse, Mark E. J. (2009) The role of pre-emptive culling in the control of foot-and-mouth disease. Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences, Vol.276 (No.1671). pp. 3239-3248. doi:10.1098/rspb.2009.0427 ISSN 0962-8452.

Tildesley, Michael J. and Keeling, Matthew James (2009) Corrigendum to 'Is R-0 a good predictor of final epidemic size: foot-and-mouth disease in the UK': [vol 258, pg 623, 2009]. Journal of Theoretical Biology, Vol.259 (No.4). p. 863. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.05.015

Tildesley, Michael J. and Keeling, Matthew James (2009) Is R0 a good predictor of final epidemic size : foot-and-mouth disease in the UK. Journal of Theoretical Biology, Vol.258 (No.4). pp. 623-629. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.02.019 ISSN 0022-5193.

2008

Tildesley, Michael J., Deardon, Rob, Savill, Nicholas J., Bessell, Paul R., Brooks, Stephen P., Woolhouse, Mark E. J., Grenfell, Bryan T. and Keeling, Matthew James (2008) Accuracy of models for the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic. Proceedings of the Royal Society B. Biological Sciences , Vol.275 (No.1641). pp. 1459-1468. doi:10.1098/rspb.2008.0006 ISSN 0962-8452.

Tildesley, Michael J. and Keeling, Matthew James (2008) Modelling foot-and-mouth disease : a comparison between the UK and Denmark. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Vol.85 (No.1-2). pp. 107-124. doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2008.01.008 ISSN 0167-5877.

2007

Savill, Nicholas J., Shaw, Darren J., Deardon, Rob, Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matthew James, Woolhouse, Mark E. J., Brooks, Stephen P. and Grenfell, Bryan T. (2007) Effect of data quality on estimates of farm infectiousness trends in the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Vol.4 (No.13). pp. 235-241. doi:10.1098/rsif.2006.0178 ISSN 1742-5689.

Tildesley, Michael J., Savill, Nicholas J., Shaw, Darren J., Deardon, Rob, Brooks, Stephen P., Woolhouse, Mark E. J., Grenfell, Bryan T. and Keeling, Matthew James (2007) Vaccination strategies for foot-and-mouth disease. Nature, Vol.445 (No.7128). E12-E13. doi:10.1038/nature05605

2006

Keeling, Matthew James, Tildesley, Michael J., Savill, Nicholas J., Woolhouse, Mark E. J., Shaw, Duncan, Deardon, Rob, Brooks, Stephen P. and Grenfell, Bryan T. (2006) FMD control strategies - Comment. Veterinary Record, Volume 158 (Number 20). pp. 707-708. doi:10.1136/vr.158.20.707

Savill, Nicholas J., Shaw, Darren J., Deardon, Rob, Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matthew James, Woolhouse, Mark E. J., Brooks, Stephan P. and Grenfell, Bryan T. (2006) Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic. BMC Veterinary Research, Vol.2 (No.3). doi:10.1186/1746-6148-2-3 ISSN 1746-6148.