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Consistency between direct and indirect trial evidence : is direct evidence always more reliable?
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Madan, Jason, Stevenson, M. D., Cooper, K. L., Ades, A. E., Whyte, S. and Akehurst, R. (2011) Consistency between direct and indirect trial evidence : is direct evidence always more reliable? Value in Health, 14 (6). 953- 960. doi:10.1016/j.jval.2011.05.042 ISSN 1098-3015.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2011.05.042
Abstract
Objectives
To present a case study involving the reduction in incidence of febrile neutropenia (FN) after chemotherapy with granulocyte colony–stimulating factors (G-CSFs), illustrating difficulties that may arise when following the common preference for direct evidence over indirect evidence.
Methods
Evidence of the efficacy of treatments was identified from two previous systematic reviews. We used Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate relative treatment effects based on direct evidence, indirect evidence, and both pooled together. We checked for inconsistency between direct and indirect evidence and explored the role of one specific trial using cross-validation. A subsequent review identified further studies not available at the time of the original analysis. We repeated the analyses on the enlarged evidence base.
Results
We found substantial inconsistency in the original evidence base. The median odds ratio of FN for primary pegfilgrastim versus no primary G-CSF was 0.06 (95% credible interval: 0.02–0.19) based on direct evidence, but 0.27 (95% credible interval: 0.13–0.53) based on indirect evidence (P value for consistency hypothesis 0.027). The additional trials were consistent with the earlier indirect, rather than the direct, evidence, and there was no inconsistency between direct and indirect estimates in the updated evidence. The earlier inconsistency was due to one trial comparing primary pegfilgrastim with no primary G-CSF. Predictive cross-validation showed that this study was inconsistent with the evidence as a whole and with other trials making this comparison.
Conclusions
Both the Cochrane Handbook and the NICE Methods Guide express a preference for direct evidence. A more robust strategy, which is in line with the accepted principles of evidence synthesis, would be to combine all relevant and appropriate information, whether direct or indirect.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subjects: | R Medicine > R Medicine (General) | ||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School > Clinical Trials Unit Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School > Health Sciences Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School |
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| Journal or Publication Title: | Value in Health | ||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier | ||||
| ISSN: | 1098-3015 | ||||
| Official Date: | 29 July 2011 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 14 | ||||
| Number: | 6 | ||||
| Page Range: | 953- 960 | ||||
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jval.2011.05.042 | ||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 19 July 2018 | ||||
| Funder: | Amgen |
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