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Assessment of the response of pollinator abundance to environmental pressures using structured expert elicitation
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Barons, Martine J., Hanea, Anca M., Wright, Sophia K., Baldock, Katherine C. R., Wilfert, Lena, Chandler, Dave, Datta, Samik, Fannon, Jessica, Hartfield, Chris, Lucas, Andrew, Ollerton, Jeff, Potts, Simon G. and Carreck, Norman L. (2018) Assessment of the response of pollinator abundance to environmental pressures using structured expert elicitation. Journal of Apicultural Research, 57 (5). pp. 593-604. doi:10.1080/00218839.2018.1494891 ISSN 0021-8839.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/00218839.2018.1494891
Abstract
Policy-makers often need to rely on experts with disparate fields of expertise when making policy choices in complex, multi-faceted, dynamic environments such as those dealing with ecosystem services. For policy-makers wishing to make evidence-based decisions which will best support pollinator abundance and pollination services, one of the problems faced is how to access the information and evidence they need, and how to combine it to formulate and evaluate candidate policies. This is even more complex when multiple factors provide influence in combination. The pressures affecting the survival and pollination capabilities of honey bees (Apis mellifera), wild bees, and other pollinators are well documented, but incomplete. In order to estimate the potential effectiveness of various candidate policy choices, there is an urgent need to quantify the effect of various combinations of factors on the pollination ecosystem service. Using high-quality experimental evidence is the most robust approach, but key aspects of the system may not be amenable to experimentation or may be prohibitive based on cost, time and effort. In such cases, it is possible to obtain the required evidence by using structured expert elicitation, a method for quantitatively characterizing the state of knowledge about an uncertain quantity. Here we report and discuss the outputs of the novel use of a structured expert elicitation, designed to quantify the probability of good pollinator abundance given a variety of weather, disease, and habitat scenarios.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||||
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Subjects: | Q Science > QK Botany | ||||||||||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics |
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Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Honeybee, Bees, Pollination by bees, Pollination by insects, Pollinators | ||||||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of Apicultural Research | ||||||||||||
Publisher: | Taylor & Francis Inc. | ||||||||||||
ISSN: | 0021-8839 | ||||||||||||
Official Date: | 2 October 2018 | ||||||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 57 | ||||||||||||
Number: | 5 | ||||||||||||
Page Range: | pp. 593-604 | ||||||||||||
DOI: | 10.1080/00218839.2018.1494891 | ||||||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||||
Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): | βThis is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of Apicultural Research on 02/10/2018, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/https://doi.org/10.1080/00218839.2018.1494891β | ||||||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 24 July 2018 | ||||||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 24 January 2019 | ||||||||||||
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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