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Who voted for Brexit? : individual and regional data combined
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Alabrese, Eleonora, Becker, Sascha O., Fetzer, Thiemo and Novy, Dennis (2018) Who voted for Brexit? : individual and regional data combined. Working Paper. Coventry, UK: University of Warwick. Department of Economics. Warwick economics research papers series (WERPS) (1172). (Unpublished)
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Official URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/w...
Abstract
Previous analyses of the 2016 Brexit referendum used region-level data or small samples based on polling data. The former might be subject to ecological fallacy and the latter might suffer from small-sample bias. We use individual-level data on thousands of respondents in Understanding Society, the UK’s largest household survey, which includes the EU referendum question. We find that voting Leave is associated with older age, white ethnicity, low educational attainment, infrequent use of smartphones and the internet, receiving benefits, adverse health and low life satisfaction. These results coincide with corresponding patterns at the aggregate level of voting areas. We therefore do not find evidence of ecological fallacy. In addition, we show that prediction accuracy is geographically heterogeneous across UK regions, with strongly pro-Leave and strongly pro-Remain areas easier to predict. We also show that among individuals with similar socioeconomic characteristics, Labour supporters are more likely to support Remain while Conservative supporters are more likely to support Leave.
| Item Type: | Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper) | ||||
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| Subjects: | J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) > JN101 Great Britain | ||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics | ||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | European Union -- Great Britain, Referendum -- Great Britain -- History -- 21st century, Referendum -- Regional disparities -- Great Britain, Voting research -- Great Britain, Public opinion -- Great Britain | ||||
| Series Name: | Warwick economics research papers series (WERPS) | ||||
| Publisher: | University of Warwick. Department of Economics | ||||
| Place of Publication: | Coventry, UK | ||||
| ISSN: | 0083-7350 | ||||
| Official Date: | August 2018 | ||||
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| Number: | 1172 | ||||
| Number of Pages: | 19 | ||||
| Institution: | University of Warwick | ||||
| Status: | Not Peer Reviewed | ||||
| Publication Status: | Unpublished | ||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||
| Description: | This paper also appears as CAGE discussion paper 384 |
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