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Dynamics of the 2004 avian influenza H5N1 outbreak in Thailand : the role of duck farming, sequential model fitting and control
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Retkute, Renata, Jewell, Chris P., Van Boeckel, Thomas P., Zhang, Geli, Xiao, Xiangming, Thanapongtharme, Weerapong, Keeling, Matthew James, Gilbert, Marius and Tildesley, Michael J. (2018) Dynamics of the 2004 avian influenza H5N1 outbreak in Thailand : the role of duck farming, sequential model fitting and control. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 159 . pp. 171-181. doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2018.09.014 ISSN 0167-5877.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2018.09.014
Abstract
The Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 virus persists in many countries and has been circulating in poultry, wild birds. In addition, the virus has emerged in other species and frequent zoonotic spillover events indicate that there remains a significant risk to human health. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of the disease in the poultry industry to develop a more comprehensive knowledge of the risks of transmission and to establish a better distribution of resources when implementing control. In this paper, we develop a set of mathematical models that simulate the spread of HPAI H5N1 in the poultry industry in Thailand, utilising data from the 2004 epidemic. The model that incorporates the intensity of duck farming when assessing transmision risk provides the best fit to the spatiotemporal characteristics of the observed outbreak, implying that intensive duck farming drives transmission of HPAI in Thailand. We also extend our models using a sequential model fitting approach to explore the ability of the models to be used in "real time" during novel disease outbreaks. We conclude that, whilst predictions of epidemic size are estimated poorly in the early stages of disease outbreaks, the model can infer the preferred control policy that should be deployed to minimise the impact of the disease.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||||
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Alternative Title: | |||||||||||||
Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine S Agriculture > SF Animal culture |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics |
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Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Avian influenza, Ducks -- Breeding -- Thailand, Avian influenza -- Prevention -- Thailand, Avian influenza -- Epidemiology -- Mathematical models | ||||||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Preventive Veterinary Medicine | ||||||||||||
Publisher: | Elsevier | ||||||||||||
ISSN: | 0167-5877 | ||||||||||||
Official Date: | 1 November 2018 | ||||||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 159 | ||||||||||||
Page Range: | pp. 171-181 | ||||||||||||
DOI: | 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2018.09.014 | ||||||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 16 September 2018 | ||||||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 9 January 2019 | ||||||||||||
Grant number: | EP/P511079/1, BB/K010972/4, 1R01AI101028- 555 02A1 | ||||||||||||
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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