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Seismic risk assessment for developing countries : Pakistan as a case study
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Khan, Shaukat A., Pilakoutas, Kypros, Hajirasouliha, Iman, Garcia, Reyes and Guadagnini, Maurizio (2018) Seismic risk assessment for developing countries : Pakistan as a case study. Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, 17 (4). pp. 787-804. doi:10.1007/s11803-018-0476-3
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11803-018-0476-3
Abstract
Modern Earthquake Risk Assessment (ERA) methods usually require seismo-tectonic information for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) that may not be readily available in developing countries. To bypass this drawback, this paper presents a practical event-based PSHA method that uses instrumental seismicity, available historical seismicity, as well as limited information on geology and tectonic setting. Historical seismicity is integrated with instrumental seismicity to determine the long-term hazard. The tectonic setting is included by assigning seismic source zones associated with known major faults. Monte Carlo simulations are used to generate earthquake catalogues with randomized key hazard parameters. A case study region in Pakistan is selected to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. The results indicate that the proposed method produces seismic hazard maps consistent with previous studies, thus being suitable for generating such maps in regions where limited data are available. The PSHA procedure is developed as an integral part of an ERA framework named EQRAM. The framework is also used to determine seismic risk in terms of annual losses for the study region.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QE Geology T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Engineering | ||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Earthquake engineering, Earthquake hazard analysis -- Pakistan, Earthquake hazard analysis -- Developing countries, Seismology | ||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration | ||||||||
| Publisher: | Springer Verlag | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 1671-3664 | ||||||||
| Official Date: | October 2018 | ||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Date of first compliant deposit: | 25 October 2018 | ||||||||
| Volume: | 17 | ||||||||
| Number: | 4 | ||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 787-804 | ||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1007/s11803-018-0476-3 | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
| Publisher Statement: | This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration. The final authenticated version is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11803-018-0476-3 | ||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access |
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