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Political booms, financial crises
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Herrera, Helios, Ordoñez, Guillermo and Trebesch, Christoph (2020) Political booms, financial crises. Journal of Political Economy, 128 (2). pp. 507-543. doi:10.1086/704544 ISSN 0022-3808.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1086/704544
Abstract
Political booms, measured by the rise in governments’ popularity, predict financial crises above and beyond better-known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in emerging economies. We argue that governments in developing countries have stronger incentives to “ride” unsound credit booms in order to boost their popularity, rather than implementing corrective policies that could prevent crises but are politically costly. We provide evidence of the relevance of this mechanism, partly by constructing a new cross-country dataset on government popularity based on opinion polls.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||||||
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Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics | ||||||||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of Political Economy | ||||||||||||||
Publisher: | University of Chicago Press | ||||||||||||||
ISSN: | 0022-3808 | ||||||||||||||
Official Date: | 2020 | ||||||||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 128 | ||||||||||||||
Number: | 2 | ||||||||||||||
Page Range: | pp. 507-543 | ||||||||||||||
DOI: | 10.1086/704544 | ||||||||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||||||
Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): | © 2019 by [name of copyright holder]. For pre-publication versions of your article (i.e., pre-prints), appropriate credit means a statement prominently displayed on the paper itself, specifying the paper’s status, date, and journal name. (For example: “Submitted (or Accepted) for publication to (by) Journal Name on MM/DD/YYYY.”) | ||||||||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 6 December 2018 | ||||||||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 19 December 2020 | ||||||||||||||
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