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'Peace through strength’ : Europe and NATO deterrence beyond the US nuclear posture review

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McCrisken, Trevor and Downman, Maxwell (2019) 'Peace through strength’ : Europe and NATO deterrence beyond the US nuclear posture review. International Affairs, 95 (2). pp. 277-295. doi:10.1093/ia/iiz002 ISSN 0020-5850.

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiz002

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Abstract

With its 2018 Nuclear Posture Review, the Trump administration expanded the scope of US nuclear deterrence, re-emphasizing the importance of non-strategic nuclear weapons, perceptively lowering the threshold for nuclear use and casting doubt on the future of arms control. The authors argue that these changes are consistent with the administration's wider ‘peace through strength’ approach that draws on traditional Republican thinking on security policy. While designed to demonstrate credibility and resolve to both allies and adversaries, however, this assertive approach to security policy and specifically nuclear policy as a necessary precursor to renewed engagement in strategic negotiations may have unintended consequences. This article focuses on European reactions to the strategy and argues that the Trump administration's nuclear posture challenges common European understandings in three principal areas. First, changes to US declaratory policy contest European assumptions on the role of nuclear weapons in defending NATO. Second, US modernization plans and their implications for intra-alliance relations risk accentuating controversial debates about the US commitment to Europe. Third, the apparent US rejection of arms control widens the scope for discord with European leaders. If European leaders assert a clear and credible alternative vision advocating nuclear restraint, risk reduction and arms control they could rebuild trust and confidence between the United States, NATO and Russia, demonstrating real strength and ultimately leading to more genuine opportunities for peace and sustainable European security.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: J Political Science > JX International law
J Political Science > JZ International relations
U Military Science > U Military Science (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Politics and International Studies
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Nuclear weapons -- Government policy -- United States, Deterrence (Strategy), United States -- Foreign relations -- Europe, Europe -- Foreign relations -- United States, Nuclear warfare
Journal or Publication Title: International Affairs
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISSN: 0020-5850
Official Date: 1 March 2019
Dates:
DateEvent
1 March 2019Published
17 December 2018Accepted
Volume: 95
Number: 2
Page Range: pp. 277-295
DOI: 10.1093/ia/iiz002
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in International Affairs following peer review. The version of record Trevor McCrisken, Maxwell Downman, ‘Peace through strength’: Europe and NATO deterrence beyond the US Nuclear Posture Review, International Affairs, Volume 95, Issue 2, March 2019, Pages 277–295 is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiz002
Access rights to Published version: Restricted or Subscription Access
Date of first compliant deposit: 30 January 2019
Date of first compliant Open Access: 1 March 2021
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