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Quantitative impacts of incubation phase transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus
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Arzt, Jonathan, Branan, Matthew A., Delgado, Amy H., Yadav, Shankar, Moreno-Torres, Karla I., Tildesley, Michael J. and Stenfeldt, Carolina (2019) Quantitative impacts of incubation phase transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus. Scientific Reports, 9 (1). 2707. doi:10.1038/s41598-019-39029-0 ISSN 2045-2322.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-39029-0
Abstract
The current investigation applied a Bayesian modeling approach to a unique experimental transmission study to estimate the occurrence of transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) during the incubation phase amongst group-housed pigs. The primary outcome was that transmission occurred approximately one day prior to development of visible signs of disease (posterior median 21 hours, 95% CI: 1.1–45.0). Updated disease state durations were incorporated into a simulation model to examine the importance of addressing preclinical transmission in the face of robust response measures. Simulation of FMD outbreaks in the US pig production sector demonstrated that including a preclinical infectious period of one day would result in a 40% increase in the median number of farms affected (166 additional farms and 664,912 pigs euthanized) compared to the scenario of no preclinical transmission, assuming suboptimal outbreak response. These findings emphasize the importance of considering transmission of FMD during the incubation phase in modeling and response planning.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR355 Virology S Agriculture > SF Animal culture |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Foot-and-mouth disease, Agricultural virology | |||||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Scientific Reports | |||||||||||||||
| Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group | |||||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 2045-2322 | |||||||||||||||
| Official Date: | 25 January 2019 | |||||||||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 9 | |||||||||||||||
| Number: | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| Article Number: | 2707 | |||||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41598-019-39029-0 | |||||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | |||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 12 March 2019 | |||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 13 March 2019 | |||||||||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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