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A machine learning perspective on responsible gambling
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Hassanniakalager, Arman and Newall, Philip (2022) A machine learning perspective on responsible gambling. Behavioural Public Policy, 6 (2). pp. 237-260. doi:10.1017/bpp.2019.9 ISSN 2398-063X.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1017/bpp.2019.9
Abstract
Gamblers are frequently reminded to “gamble responsibly.” But these qualitative reminders come with no quantitative information for gamblers to judge relative product risk in skill-based gambling forms. By comparison, consumers purchasing alcohol are informed of product strength by alcohol by volume (ABV %) or similar labels. This paper uses mixed logistic regression machine learning to uncover the potential variation in soccer betting outcomes. This paper uses data from four bet types and eight seasons of English Premier League soccer, ending in 2018. Outcomes across each bet type were compared using three betting strategies: the most-skilled prediction, a random strategy, and the least-skilled prediction. There was a large spread in betting outcomes, with for example the per-bet average loss varying by a factor of 54 (from 1.1% to 58.9%). Gamblers’ losses were positively correlated with the observable betting odds across all bets, indicating that betting odds are one salient feature which could be used to inform gamblers about product risk. Such large differences in product risk are relevant to the promotion of responsible gambling.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare | ||||||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Engineering > WMG (Formerly the Warwick Manufacturing Group) | ||||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Gambling industry -- Marketing, Machine learning, Compulsive gamblers | ||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Behavioural Public Policy | ||||||||
Publisher: | Cambridge University Press | ||||||||
ISSN: | 2398-063X | ||||||||
Official Date: | April 2022 | ||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 6 | ||||||||
Number: | 2 | ||||||||
Page Range: | pp. 237-260 | ||||||||
DOI: | 10.1017/bpp.2019.9 | ||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): | This article has been published in Behavioural Public Policy http://doi.org/10.1017/bpp.2019.9. This version is free to view and download for private research and study only. Not for re-distribution, re-sale or use in derivative works. © Cambridge University Press, 2019. | ||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 20 March 2019 | ||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 26 March 2019 | ||||||||
Related URLs: | |||||||||
Open Access Version: |
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