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A new probabilistic explanation of the Modus Ponens–Modus Tollens asymmetry
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Eva, Benjamin, Hartmann, Stephan and Singmann, Henrik (2019) A new probabilistic explanation of the Modus Ponens–Modus Tollens asymmetry. In: 41st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, Montréal, Cananda, 24-27 Jul 2019. Published in: Proceedings of the 41st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (Unpublished)
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Official URL: https://cognitivesciencesociety.org/program/
Abstract
A consistent finding in research on conditional reasoning is that individuals are more likely to endorse the valid modus ponens (MP) inference than the equally valid modus tollens (MT) inference. This pattern holds for both abstract task and probabilistic task. The existing explanation for this phenomenon within a Bayesian framework (e.g., Oaksford & Chater, 2008) accounts for this asymmetry by assuming separate probability distributions for both MP and MT. We propose a novel explanation within a computational-level Bayesian account of reasoning according to which “argumentation is learning”. We show that the asymmetry must appear for certain prior probability distributions, under the assumption that the conditional inference provides the agent with new information that is integrated into the existing knowledge by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the posterior and prior probability distribution. We also show under which conditions we would expect the opposite pattern, an MT-MP asymmetry.
Item Type: | Conference Item (Paper) | ||||||
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Subjects: | B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BC Logic Q Science > QA Mathematics |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Psychology | ||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Reasoning, Conditionals (Logic), Inference, Bayesian statistical decision theory | ||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Proceedings of the 41st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society | ||||||
Publisher: | The Cognitive Science Society | ||||||
Official Date: | 10 May 2019 | ||||||
Dates: |
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Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||
Publication Status: | Unpublished | ||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 23 May 2019 | ||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 24 May 2019 | ||||||
Conference Paper Type: | Paper | ||||||
Title of Event: | 41st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society | ||||||
Type of Event: | Conference | ||||||
Location of Event: | Montréal, Cananda | ||||||
Date(s) of Event: | 24-27 Jul 2019 | ||||||
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