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The role of movement restrictions in limiting the economic impact of livestock infections
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Tildesley, Michael J., Brand, Samuel, Brooks Pollock, E., Bradbury, Naomi, Werkman, Marleen and Keeling, Matthew James (2019) The role of movement restrictions in limiting the economic impact of livestock infections. Nature Sustainability, 2 . pp. 834-840. doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0356-5 ISSN 2398-9629.
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WRAP-role-movement-restrictions-limiting-economic-livesstock-Tildesley-2019.pdf - Accepted Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Download (1152Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0356-5
Abstract
Livestock movements are essential for the economic success of the industry. However, these movements come with the risk of long-range spread of infection, potentially bringing infection to previously disease-free areas where subsequent localized transmission can be devastating. Mechanistic predictive models usually consider controls that minimize the number of livestock affected without considering other costs of an ongoing epidemic. However, it is more appropriate to consider the economic burden, as movement restrictions have major consequences for the economic revenue of farms. Here, using mechanistic models of foot-and-mouth disease, bluetongue virus and bovine tuberculosis in the UK, we compare the economically optimal control strategies for these diseases. We show that for foot-and-mouth disease, the optimal strategy is to ban movements in a small radius around infected farms; the balance between disease control and maintaining ‘business as usual’ varies between regions. For bluetongue virus and bovine tuberculosis, we find that the cost of any movement ban is greater than the epidemiological benefits due to the low within-farm prevalence and slow rate of disease spread. This work suggests that movement controls need to be carefully matched to the epidemiological and economic consequences of the disease, and that optimal movement bans are often of far shorter duration than allowed under existing policy.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications Q Science > QL Zoology S Agriculture > SF Animal culture |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Livestock , Livestock -- Diseases , Livestock -- Diseases -- Prevention, Livestock -- Diseases -- Mathematical models, Livestock -- Transportation, Veterinary virology , Home range (Animal geography) | ||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Nature Sustainability | ||||||||
| Publisher: | Springer Nature | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 2398-9629 | ||||||||
| Official Date: | August 2019 | ||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 2 | ||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 834-840 | ||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41893-019-0356-5 | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 23 July 2019 | ||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 19 February 2020 | ||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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