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Terrorist attacks, analyst sentiment, and earnings forecasts
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Cuculiza, Carina, Antoniou, Constantinos, Kumar, Alok and Maligkris, Anastasios (2020) Terrorist attacks, analyst sentiment, and earnings forecasts. Management Science, 67 (4). pp. 2579-2608. doi:10.1287/mnsc.2019.3575 ISSN 0025-1909.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2019.3575
Abstract
We examine whether exogenous and extremely negative events, such as terrorist attacks and mass shootings, influence the sentiment and forecasts of sell-side equity analysts. We find that analysts who are local to these attacks issue forecasts that are relatively more pessimistic than the consensus forecast. This effect is stronger when the analyst is closer to the event and located in a low-crime region. Impacted analysts are also relatively more pessimistic around the one- and two-year anniversaries of the attacks. Collectively, these findings indicate that exposure to extreme negative events affects the behavior of information intermediaries and the information dissemination process in financial markets.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||
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| Alternative Title: | |||||||
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor H Social Sciences > HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School | ||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Terrorism -- Economic aspects, Business -- Effect of terrorism on, Economic forecasting | ||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Management Science | ||||||
| Publisher: | Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (I N F O R M S) | ||||||
| ISSN: | 0025-1909 | ||||||
| Official Date: | 14 May 2020 | ||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 67 | ||||||
| Number: | 4 | ||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 2579-2608 | ||||||
| DOI: | 10.1287/mnsc.2019.3575 | ||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||
| Copyright Holders: | Copyright © 2020, INFORMS | ||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 6 January 2020 | ||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 6 January 2020 | ||||||
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