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Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898–1949
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Tennant, Warren, Tildesley, Michael J., Spencer, Simon E. F. and Keeling, Matthew James (2020) Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898–1949. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 287 (1928). 20200538. doi:10.1098/rspb.2020.0538
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.0538
Abstract
Plague, caused by Yersinia pestis infection, continues to threaten low- and middle-income countries throughout the world. The complex interactions between rodents and fleas with their respective environments challenge our understanding of human plague epidemiology. Historical long-term datasets of reported plague cases offer a unique opportunity to elucidate the effects of climate on plague outbreaks in detail. Here, we analyse monthly plague deaths and climate data from 25 provinces in British India from 1898 to 1949 to generate insights into the influence of temperature, rainfall and humidity on the occurrence, severity and timing of plague outbreaks. We find that moderate relative humidity levels of between 60% and 80% were strongly associated with outbreaks. Using wavelet analysis, we determine that the nationwide spread of plague was driven by changes in humidity, where, on average, a one-month delay in the onset of rising humidity translated into a one-month delay in the timing of plague outbreaks. This work can inform modern spatio-temporal predictive models for the disease and aid in the development of early-warning strategies for the deployment of prophylactic treatments and other control measures.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | D History General and Old World > DS Asia Q Science > QR Microbiology R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine R Medicine > RC Internal medicine |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Mathematics | ||||||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Plague, Yersinia pestis , India -- History -- British occupation, 1765-1947 -- Climate, Plague -- Climatic factors, Climatic changes -- India -- History -- British occupation, 1765-1947 | ||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences | ||||||||||||
| Publisher: | The Royal Society Publishing | ||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 0962-8452 | ||||||||||||
| Official Date: | 2020 | ||||||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Date of first compliant deposit: | 27 May 2020 | ||||||||||||
| Volume: | 287 | ||||||||||||
| Number: | 1928 | ||||||||||||
| Article Number: | 20200538 | ||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1098/rspb.2020.0538 | ||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access | ||||||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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