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Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898–1949

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Tennant, Warren, Tildesley, Michael J., Spencer, Simon E. F. and Keeling, Matthew James (2020) Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898–1949. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 287 (1928). 20200538. doi:10.1098/rspb.2020.0538 ISSN 0962-8452.

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.0538

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Abstract

Plague, caused by Yersinia pestis infection, continues to threaten low- and middle-income countries throughout the world. The complex interactions between rodents and fleas with their respective environments challenge our understanding of human plague epidemiology. Historical long-term datasets of reported plague cases offer a unique opportunity to elucidate the effects of climate on plague outbreaks in detail. Here, we analyse monthly plague deaths and climate data from 25 provinces in British India from 1898 to 1949 to generate insights into the influence of temperature, rainfall and humidity on the occurrence, severity and timing of plague outbreaks. We find that moderate relative humidity levels of between 60% and 80% were strongly associated with outbreaks. Using wavelet analysis, we determine that the nationwide spread of plague was driven by changes in humidity, where, on average, a one-month delay in the onset of rising humidity translated into a one-month delay in the timing of plague outbreaks. This work can inform modern spatio-temporal predictive models for the disease and aid in the development of early-warning strategies for the deployment of prophylactic treatments and other control measures.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: D History General and Old World > DS Asia
Q Science > QR Microbiology
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
R Medicine > RC Internal medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Plague, Yersinia pestis , India -- History -- British occupation, 1765-1947 -- Climate, Plague -- Climatic factors, Climatic changes -- India -- History -- British occupation, 1765-1947
Journal or Publication Title: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Publisher: The Royal Society Publishing
ISSN: 0962-8452
Official Date: 2020
Dates:
DateEvent
2020Published
10 June 2020Available
20 May 2020Accepted
Volume: 287
Number: 1928
Article Number: 20200538
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.0538
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit: 27 May 2020
Date of first compliant Open Access: 28 May 2020
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
UNSPECIFIEDDepartment of Health & Social CareUNSPECIFIED
PR-317 OD-1017-20002[NIHR] National Institute for Health Researchhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000272
MR/P026400/1Medical Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265

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