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Elimination or resurgence : modelling lymphatic filariasis after reaching the 1% microfilaremia prevalence threshold

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Prada, Joaquín M., Davis, Emma L., Touloupou, Panayiota, Stolk, Wilma A., Kontoroupis, Periklis, Smith, Morgan E., Sharma, Swarnali, Michael, Edwin, de Vlas, Sake J. and Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre (2020) Elimination or resurgence : modelling lymphatic filariasis after reaching the 1% microfilaremia prevalence threshold. The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 221 (Supplement_5). S503-S509. doi:10.1093/infdis/jiz647 ISSN 0022-1899.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiz647

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Abstract

The low prevalence levels associated with lymphatic filariasis elimination pose a challenge for effective disease surveillance. As more countries achieve the World Health Organization criteria for halting mass treatment and move on to surveillance, there is increasing reliance on the utility of transmission assessment surveys (TAS) to measure success. However, the long-term disease outcomes after passing TAS are largely untested. Using 3 well-established mathematical models, we show that low-level prevalence can be maintained for a long period after halting mass treatment and that true elimination (0% prevalence) is usually slow to achieve. The risk of resurgence after achieving current targets is low and is hard to predict using just current prevalence. Although resurgence is often quick (<5 years), it can still occur outside of the currently recommended postintervention surveillance period of 4–6 years. Our results highlight the need for ongoing and enhanced postintervention monitoring, beyond the scope of TAS, to ensure sustained success.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: Q Science > QL Zoology
Q Science > QM Human anatomy
Q Science > QP Physiology
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Lymphatics , Lymphatics -- Diseases -- Transmission -- Statistics, Lymphatics -- Infections, Lymphatics -- Infections -- Statistics
Journal or Publication Title: The Journal of Infectious Diseases
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISSN: 0022-1899
Official Date: 15 June 2020
Dates:
DateEvent
15 June 2020Published
19 December 2019Available
4 December 2019Accepted
Volume: 221
Number: Supplement_5
Page Range: S503-S509
DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiz647
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit: 2 July 2020
Date of first compliant Open Access: 2 July 2020
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
OPP1184344Bill and Melinda Gates Foundationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000865
Is Part Of: 1
Open Access Version:
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