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It’s déjà vu all over again : COVID-19, the global energy market, and the Russian economy
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Connolly, Richard, Hanson, Philip and Bradshaw, Michael J. (2020) It’s déjà vu all over again : COVID-19, the global energy market, and the Russian economy. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 61 (4-5). pp. 511-531. doi:10.1080/15387216.2020.1776627 ISSN 1538-7216.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/15387216.2020.1776627
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has already disrupted large swathes of the global economy, threatening the growth models of major oil and gas producer countries like Russia. A collapse in oil prices, triggered by the pandemic, once again exposed Russia’s enduring susceptibility to sharp falls in oil and gas prices. We argue that this decline in oil prices came at a time when tectonic shifts in global energy markets had already threatened to reduce the value of future oil and gas revenues. These structural changes were accelerated by the collapse in demand caused by the pandemic. Because the Russian leadership had done little to address the threat posed by the emergence of a new energy order, the economy remained highly dependent on oil and gas sales as the primary source of growth. While measures undertaken since 2014 to reduce the government’s fiscal dependence on high oil prices will help Russia avoid a worst-case outcome of a fiscal or financial crisis, the dependence of other branches of the economy on the energy sector remains high. This has left Russia set once again to experience a deeper recession than that forecast for other energy exporting economies.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||||
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Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor | ||||||||||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School | ||||||||||||
SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | ||||||||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Petroleum industry and trade -- Russia (Federation), Energy policy -- Russia (Federation), Russia (Federation) -- Economic conditions -- 1991-, COVID-19 (Disease) | ||||||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Eurasian Geography and Economics | ||||||||||||
Publisher: | Taylor & Francis | ||||||||||||
ISSN: | 1538-7216 | ||||||||||||
Official Date: | 22 June 2020 | ||||||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 61 | ||||||||||||
Number: | 4-5 | ||||||||||||
Page Range: | pp. 511-531 | ||||||||||||
DOI: | 10.1080/15387216.2020.1776627 | ||||||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||||
Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): | “This is an original manuscript / preprint of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Eurasian Geography and Economics on 22/06/2020, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/15387216.2020.1776627 | ||||||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||||||
Description: | Free access |
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RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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